CF

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

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Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Potash Market: The Best Is Behind It

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It’s always sad when good things come to an end. In this case, it appears to be the global potash cartel…permanently. According to reports from the Wall Street Journal this week, the CEO of “Russian potash giant Uralkali JSC has no plans to restore a sales partnership with Belarus.” It appears that the prospects for reconciliation of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) have passed, and the global pricing cartel in the fertilizer ingredient is now a thing of the past. There are no plans for further talks at this time. Canpotex, which is comprised of Potash Corp (POT), the Mosaic Co (MOS), and Agrium (AGU), and the BPC collectively controlled about 70% of global potash exports. With the breakup of … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

PotashCorp’s 2014 Earnings Will Decline Due to Pricing Pressure

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On January 30, PotashCorp (POT) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 results. The fertilizer giant faced challenging market conditions during much of the year, and PotashCorp CEO Bill Doyle was quick to note that “this past quarter was a difficult one. Pricing headwinds – most notably in potash – weighed on (its) performance, although there were signs as the quarter came to a close that the uncertainty in global markets was beginning to abate. (Its) focus remain(s) on those things (it) can influence, and (it) took important steps to enhance (its) competitive position across all three nutrients and prepare the company to deliver better performance.” Unfortunately, the most important “thing” is something that PotashCorp cannot control: pricing. Competitive pressures and a … Read more

Monsanto Reports Fourth Quarter Results and Moves into Data

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Agricultural biotechnology giant Monsanto (click ticker for report: ) posted slightly disappointing fourth quarter results Wednesday morning. For the full year, revenue increased 8.7% year-over-year to $14.8 billion, while quarterly revenue rose 4.9% year-over-year to $2.2 billion–a touch short of consensus estimates. Earnings per share for the full year advanced 21% year-over-year to $4.60, with the firm’s quarterly loss increasing by five cents to $0.47 per share–worse than consensus expectations. Free cash flow during fiscal year 2013 was $2 billion, equal to 13.2% of total revenue. The fourth quarter isn’t much of a revenue driver or profit driver for Monsanto, so we find it more prudent to take a closer look at full-year results. Image Source: Monsanto The firm’s ‘Corn … Read more

The Potash Situation Gets More Interesting

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Late last month, Russian producer Uralkali backed out of a highly profitable and rational potash cartel arrangement, creating a free-for-all in the global potash market. As a result, shares of North American potash producers such as Potash (click ticker for report: ), Mosaic (click ticker for report: ), Agrium (click ticker for report: ), and Intrepid Potash (click ticker for report: ) have come under significant pressure as a result of the prospects for significant lower economic returns. Then mining giant BHP (click ticker for report: ) confirmed it will invest in its Jansen potash project, which will add even more potash supply to the market. A look at industry bellwether Potash’s shares below reveals the recent difficult performance experienced by the … Read more