XOM

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Exxon Mobil’s Shares Have Been Choppy of Late

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Image: Exxon Mobil’s shares have been choppy of late. By Brian Nelson, CFA Exxon Mobil (XOM) recently reported mixed first quarter results with revenue coming in a bit light, but non-GAAP earnings beating the consensus forecast. Revenue edged up modestly to $83.13 billion from $83.08 billion in the quarter, while first quarter earnings came in at $7.7 billion, or $1.76 per share, beating consensus by $0.03. Earnings, however, declined from $8.22 billion in the year-ago period. Management had the following to say about the results: In this uncertain market, our shareholders can be confident in knowing that we’re built for this. The work we’ve done to transform our company over the past eight years positions us to excel in any … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Exxon Mobil’s Permian Assets Performing Well, Structural Cost Reductions on Track

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil By Brian Nelson, CFA Exxon Mobil (XOM) recently reported better than expected third quarter results, though performance faced some headwinds from lower industry refining margins and reduced natural gas prices. Total revenues and other income fell 0.8% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while earnings excluding identified items (non-GAAP) fell to $8.6 billion from $9.2 billion in the year-ago period. Diluted earnings per common share came in at $1.92 versus $2.25 in the same period a year ago. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We delivered one of our strongest third quarters in a decade. Our industry-leading results continue to demonstrate how our enterprise-wide transformation is improving the structural earnings power of … Read more

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted

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As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Note: There is often great confusion with respect to published measures of financial leverage, and … Read more

ExxonMobil’s Free Cash Flow Remains Impressive

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Image: ExxonMobil’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2022. By Brian Nelson, CFA ExxonMobil (XOM) recently reported better than expected second quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than the consensus forecast. Total revenue and other income increased 12.2% from the prior-year quarter, while non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $2.14 per share, up $0.08 on a sequential basis. Exxon Mobil returned $9.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter, consisting of $4.3 billion in dividends and $5.2 billion in buybacks. Management was upbeat about the performance: We delivered our second-highest 2Q earnings of the past decade as we continue to improve the fundamental earnings power of the company. We achieved … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration

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Image: Energy Transfer, Philip Morris, and Altria have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF (SDY) since the beginning of 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market remains laser-focused on inflation readings and employment trends – two of the main dynamics that influence policy at the Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of 2024, the market has ratcheted down expectations of rate cuts from as many as 5 or 6 to just 1 or 2 in 2024. With yields on risk-free instruments poised to go lower soon, a focus on high yielding equities may be appropriate for the income investor. Here are three high dividend yielders that we like for consideration. Energy Transfer (ET) Midstream pipeline operator Energy Transfer has come … Read more