XEC

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

by

Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

by

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Bakken Production Is Booming and Continental Resources Is a Winner

by

 Key Takeaways: ·        Continental Resources is an oil and gas E&P with the largest shale position in the Bakken. ·        Production and proved reserves have significant room to grow. ·        A supermajor oil company like Exxon or Chevron could be interested in acquiring Continental. ·        We believe shares have 35% upside from current levels. Production of shale oil in the Bakken (1) continues to grow rapidly, and the long-term production fortunes in the region remain as positive as ever. Let’s take a look at Continental Resources (click ticker for report: ), a firm we believe has 35% upside from current levels and one that recently made our list of The 25 Cheapest Stocks on the Market. (1) The Bakken field … Read more

Firms Raising Their Dividends in the Week Ending March 1

by

The flurry of dividend increases continues. Below we provide a list of firms that upped their dividends for the week ending March 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Acadia Realty Trust (AKR): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP): now $0.075 per share monthly dividend, was $0.7458. Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (BGFV): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.075. CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (CBL): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Cedar Fair (FUN): now $0.625 per share quarterly distribution, was $0.40. Chico’s (CHS): … Read more

Black Gold! Crude Oil Prices Leap to ~$50

by

Key Takeaways: After being negative throughout much of the collapse in energy resource prices during 2014-2015, Valuentum has been market-neutral on the energy sector since October of last year, and the newsletter portfolios have participated in the bounce in energy shares from January 2016 via the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The Dividend Cushion ratio, which is a forward-looking cash-flow based metric of dividend health, flagged the risk of every dividend cut, without fail, in the Independent Oil & Gas industry in advance of the event: Anadarko (APC), Cenovus (CVE), Cimarex (XEC), Devon Energy (DVN), Noble Energy (NBL), and Range Resources (RRC). We’ll walk through the degree of capital cuts across the Independent Oil & Gas industry, the group’s efforts … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

by

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Efficacy of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

by

A version of this article was originally published September 2019. The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Valuentum Analysts  Key Takeaways: The Dividend Cushion ratio is a helpful tool to use to cushion your dividend growth or income portfolio against potential dividend cuts. The ratio also helps to assess the growth potential of a company’s dividend, above and beyond current expectations of payout … Read more

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

by

Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more…

Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets

by

Image Source: Sollven Melindo Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore. By Kris Rosemann We’re not rushing to add any commodity-based exposure at the moment. We have some of course – but we’re not looking to add more to the newsletter portfolios. For starters, the iron ore pricing market appears to be setting itself up for another period of pain, and we’re preaching serious levels of caution for those considering the space as iron-ore prices have already begun to descend from the peak of the puzzling early-2017 … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 28

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Albemarle (ALB): now $0.385 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3675. Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD): now EUR 1.00 per share semi-annual dividend, was EUR 0.80. Assured Guaranty (AGO): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Barings BDC (BBDC): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Best Buy (BBY): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more