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Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Philip Morris International Posts Solid Guidance, Cuts Costs

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Image Shown: Excluding foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International Inc’s financials held up relatively well during the first half of 2020, all things considered with an eye towards the pandemic. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has severely stressed consumer spending in countries all over the globe, and that includes spending on cigarettes and other tobacco products. For a major tobacco company like Philip Morris International Inc (PM), this dynamic weighs negatively on its near-term outlook, though the company is well-positioned to ride out the storm for several reasons. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a holding in the High Yield Dividend … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN): now $0.1282 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1165. Baker Hughes (BHGE): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. Baxter (BAX): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. BG Staffing (BGSF): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Brookline Bancorp (BRKL): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Business First Bancshares (BFST): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Philip Morris International Moving on Upwards

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Image Shown: We increased the weighting in shares of Philip Morris International in the High Yield Newsletter portfolio back on November 18, 2019. Shares of PM have rallied aggressively off of their Fall 2019 lows through the middle of February 2020. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite high yield ideas out there is Philip Morris International Inc (PM), and please note we increased the weighting of shares of PM in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio (check out our HYDN here) back on November 18, 2019 (link here covering those portfolio changes), and our timing couldn’t have been better considering shares of PM have aggressively rallied since September 2019 through the middle of February 2020. There’s still room for … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more

Philip Morris International is Ready to Ride Out the Storm

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Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 21, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio holding Philip Morris International Inc (PM) reported first-quarter earnings for 2020 which beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Shares of PM currently yield ~6.1% as of this writing, and we view that payout as well-covered given the resilience of Philip Morris International’s free cash flows and business model (demand for tobacco and tobacco products is inelastic), along with the firm’s ability to tap its revolving credit lines and potentially debt markets if needed. Management pulled the firm’s full-year guidance for 2020 and instead offered guidance for the second quarter, given the lack of clarity … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 3

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Aena S.M.E., S.A. (ANYYY): now $0.621 per share annual dividend, was $0.360. Aker BP ASA (AKRBY): now $0.174 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.173. American International Group (AIG): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. American Water Works (AWK): now $0.7650 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.7075. Apollo Global Management (APO): now $0.4625 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.4300. Apple Inc. (AAPL): now … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more