SHW

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds

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Image Source: Terry Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ll have our traditional Valuentum Weekly email coming out on Sunday, and I’m excited to say our team is putting the finishing touches on our technology industry update, so we’ll have a whole bunch of fresh reports for you to look at Sunday evening/Monday morning. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Home Depot Remains Rock-Solid

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Image Shown: Shares of Home Depot Inc have moved significantly higher year-to-date and are up approximately 21% through the end of normal trading hours on August 17. By Callum Turcan On August 17, Home Depot Inc (HD) reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended August 1, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable sales were up 4.5% year-over-year last fiscal quarter though shares of HD slid lower during the trading session that day as investors were expecting even stronger performance. Shares of HD are up roughly 21% year-to-date as of the end of the normal trading session on August 17 (that includes the impact of the ~4% drop in shares of HD after its earnings … Read more

Favorite Miner Newmont Shines Bright

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Image Source: Newmont Corporation – June 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On January 13, 2020, we added shares of Newmont Corporation (NEM) as an idea to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (link here). The gold miner has a top-notch asset base located in favorable mining jurisdictions with ample reserves to maintain and potentially grow its production base over the coming years. Other than gold, Newmont also produces silver, lead, copper, and zinc. Newmont Shines Bright as Stellar Income Growth Idea When Newmont joined the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio its quarterly dividend stood at $0.14 per share, though management had communicated on January 6, 2020, that Newmont was set to increase its quarterly payout up to $0.25 per share starting … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Dividend Growth Opportunity Home Depot Posts a Solid Earnings Report

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Image Source: Home Depot Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Press Release By Callum Turcan New home construction activity along with do-it-yourself (‘DIY’) and do-it-for-me (‘DIFM’) activities remains robust in the US, which is great news for Home Depot Inc (HD). On May 18, Home Depot reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended May 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Home Depot’s GAAP revenues rose by 33% year-over-year and its GAAP operating income grew by 76% year-over-year as the home improvement and construction retailer reported strong demand from both its professional and retail customer base. We are huge fans of Home Depot and include the company as an idea in our Dividend Growth … Read more

Home Depot Shows the Home Has Never Been More Important

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Image Source: Home Depot. By Brian Nelson, CFA On Tuesday, February 23, Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results (period ending January 31, 2021) that came in better than consensus estimates across the board. Not only did the top- and bottom- lines beat, but comparable store sales growth of 24.5% exceeded even some of the most optimistic forecasts for the home improvement retailer during the period. The average ticket price and the number of transactions advanced, while both professional (“Pro”) and Do-It-Yourself (“DIY”) customer revenue increased at a double-digit pace in the quarter. Home Depot also raised its dividend 10% and now yields ~2.5% on a forward-looking basis ($6.60 per-share dividend on an annualized basis). We continue to like … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

All I Want for Christmas Are Dividend Aristocrats

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Image Source: Five Furlongs It may not be as catchy as Mariah Carey’s Christmas hit, “All I Want For Christmas Is You,” but if you ask a dividend growth investor what they might want for Christmas as it relates to an investment, they might start singing about a long list of Dividend Aristocrats–a list of companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 20-25+ years. Therefore, we wanted to do something special this Christmas for members. We’ve aggregated a list of every non-financial Dividend Aristocrat in our 16-page stock report coverage universe and made a list conveniently available below, including some key data and links directly to their 16-page stock reports (pdf). To access the 16-page stock … Read more

Walking Through the Calculation of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

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A cow for her milk, A hen for her eggs, And a stock, by heck, For her dividends. An orchard for fruit, Bees for their honey, And stocks, besides, For their dividends. – John Burr Williams, “The Theory of Investment Value” (1938) Executive Summary: We believe the Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most helpful tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based, considers balance sheet health, and is forward looking. Since its development in 2012, we estimate its efficacy at ~90% in helping to forewarn readers of impending dividend cuts. For companies where Valuentum reports are available, the Dividend Cushion ratio can be found in a stock’s Dividend … Read more