MAS

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions. Q: What Is Valuentum? A: In short, it is a strategy that combines the concepts of value and momentum within individual stocks. We measure value through the cash-based sources of intrinsic value – net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow. We measure momentum rather simply, generally via relative strength or other technical and momentum indicators. We like stocks with strong net cash positions on the balance sheet, ones that are generating tremendous free cash flow, and have strong secular growth prospects such that the prospect for expectations of free cash flow can continue to be ratcheted higher. Today, most Valuentum stocks are included in the stylistic area … Read more

Home Depot’s Comparable Store Sales Continue Declines, Big Ticket Purchases Slow

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Home Depot (HD) is one of the most resilient companies across the retail arena. The firm weathered the Great Financial Crisis [GFC] well and it handled the vicissitudes of the COVID-19 pandemic and aftermath flowingly as it juggled supply chain issues, changing consumer buying preferences, and increased demand as consumers remodeled and upgraded their working and living spaces while cocooning at home. The company’s second-quarter 2023 results, released August 15, came in better than expected, but comparable store sales fell 2% both in aggregate and in the U.S. Though comparable store sales declines improved from bigger declines in the first quarter, Home Depot’s guidance for comparable sales to fall 2%-5% for all of fiscal 2023 indicates … Read more

Walmart Warns: “Prices Are Still High and There Is Considerable Pressure on the Consumer”

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  Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA As we wrote in “The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” in early January, the trade-down trends that we’re seeing in big box retail and with groceries, more generally, are interesting. Inflation started to accelerate with food-at-home prices moving aggressively higher in early 2022, and consumers have been trading down to better value. It probably wasn’t until egg prices soared, however — driven in part by a shortage of egg laying chickens (not just inflationary pressures) – that tipped everyday consumers to budget more cautiously, and the largest big box retailer in Walmart (WMT) is seeing this impact first-hand. Here’s what’s happening on the ground, per Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon on the … Read more

Home Depot’s Comps, Operating Income Fall in Q4; Hikes Dividend 10%

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA  On February 21, home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD) reported weak fourth quarter 2022 results that showed comparable store sales for the period falling 0.3% and operating income dropping 1.5% from the same period a year ago. Diluted earnings per share advanced 2.8% from last year’s quarter. The company is dealing with a weakened consumer spending environment and difficult comparisons from pandemic-driven demand of a year ago. Home Depot raised its dividend payout 10%, to $2.09 per share, or $8.36 per share on an annualized basis. That translates into a forward estimated dividend yield of ~2.6%. Looking to fiscal 2023, Home Depot’s sales guidance was rather weak. The company expects sales and … Read more

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023

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Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year’s Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers! Transcript President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that you are enjoying this special time of year with family and friends, and I wish you all a wonderful 2023! I just wanted to take a few minutes to recap … Read more

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership

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In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance–despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening! Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” … Read more

Home Depot Says Customers Remain “Resilient and Engaged”

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  Image: Home Depot’s third-quarter performance wasn’t bad. Inventories expanded, but management reiterated that its core customer remains resilient and engaged. Image Source: Home Depot By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 15, home improvement retailer The Home Depot (HD) reported strong third-quarter results that beat expectations on both the top and bottom line. Revenue advanced 5.6% in the period thanks to comparable sales growth of 4.3% and 4.5% comp expansion in the U.S. Net earnings came in at $4.24 per diluted share, showcasing 8.2% growth over the $3.92 per-share mark from last year. The firm noted that its core customer is still healthy, indicating that it has yet to feel a meaningful impact from what could be a painful decline … Read more

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print

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Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more