DIS

Disney Posts Mixed Fiscal First-Quarter Results; Consumers Still Spending at Parks and Resorts

by

Disney’s fiscal first-quarter results, issued Tuesday, were mixed. Revenues missed expectations, advancing modestly from the same period last year, while diluted earnings per share grew 18% to $0.80, beating consensus forecasts of $0.75 per share. The top-line growth and operating-income expansion in the period was led by its Media Networks and Parks and Resorts segments. Revenue in its Studio Entertainment segment fell 16%, though operating income in the division still advanced 10% despite having fewer Disney branded titles in wide theatrical release during the quarter. Consumer Products revenue jumped 3%, and segment operating income held essentially flat. The company noted particular strength at ESPN, generally lower political advertising revenues, and increased guest spending (higher ticket prices and food and beverage … Read more

Disney’s Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Strong; Income Expands Across All Five Segments

by

Walt Disney (DIS) reported solid fiscal fourth-quarter results that showed significant earnings expansion led by strength at its media networks and increased consumer spending at its parks and resorts. We’re sticking with our $36 fair value estimate and think the company remains fairly valued at these levels. Disney’s total revenue advanced 7% from the same period a year ago, led by strength in the firm’s media networks (up 9%) and parks and resorts (up 11%), and to a lesser extent, consumer products (up 12%) and interactive media (up 19%)—the latter two being relatively smaller divisions. Within its media networks, revenue from cable networks was the major driver behind the top-line expansion thanks to strong performance (higher advertising and affiliate revenue) from ESPN … Read more

Disney Posts Decent Fiscal Third Quarter; Consumer Spending at Parks, Resorts Up

by

Walt Disney (DIS) reported decent fiscal third-quarter results Tuesday that showed revenue growth of 9% and solid net-income expansion of 11%. We like the strong brands at Disney and would consider adding it to our Best Ideas portfolio under $28 per share on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process. The firm experienced solid sales growth from is Parks and Resorts (up 12%)—Disney Cruise Line and Hong Kong Disneyland Resort–and Consumer Products (up 13%)—Merchandising Licensing–segments. These two segments also led the charge with respect to operating income expansion, with Media Networks also posting nice double-digit growth thanks to strong performance from cable networks (specifically ESPN) and broadcasting (driven by lower programming and production costs). As it relates to the health of the consumer, the firm noted … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

by

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Nelson on Bogle, Part I

by

“The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the “I’ll get it next time” mentality that was present leading to the crash of ’29, individual investors have “evolved” to the point that now the idea is if you can’t beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that … Read more

The Success Equation Book Review: Is the Skill Paradox a Myth in Investing? We Think So

by

“If I’d just tried for them dinky singles, I could’ve batted around .600.” – Babe Ruth — “In investing, the trend toward conformity is clear. For example, portfolios today look more like their benchmarks than they did thirty years ago. The average active share, a measure of how different a mutual fund portfolio is compared to its benchmark, has fallen from 75 percent in 1980 to about 60 percent in 2010 in the United States. Leaders in sports as well as in business fear straying too far from convention, even in cases where the convention isn’t all that great (page 174).” – The Success Equation (2012) — This article was originally published October 16, 2020. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — … Read more

The Investment Case for the 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200 Basketball Card

by

Image Shown: 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200.  On February 12, 2021, a sealed case of 20 boxes of 1989-1990 Series 1 Hoops Basketball cards sold on eBay for ~$5,999[1]. 36 packs x 15 cards per pack = 540 cards per box. 10,800 cards in the case. By Brian Nelson, CFA After I put together a video on the roaring basketball card market,[2] I received a few questions on which basketball card I thought was the most undervalued in today’s market. The interest is understandable given news that a Lebron James rookie card recently sold for $5.2 million, a Luka Doncic card sold for $4.6 million[3], and a Kobe Bryant rookie refractor sold for $1.8 million[4]. First of all, I am … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

by

Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Overweighting Outperformers

by

Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (trading session October 21, interim) — Image: The performance of ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during the trading session October 21. Many of the higher-weighted ideas in the newsletter portfolio (weightings shown here) are propelling the portfolio to relative outperformance. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio comprises a portfolio constructed of Valuentum’s best ideas. These are companies that have scored favorably on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) and have been included in the newsletter portfolio with consideration of sector diversification and market/economic risk. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is found in the Best Ideas Newsletter, which is released on the 15th of each month. Its archives can be accessed here. Source: Seeking Alpha. — Hi everyone, — As … Read more

Volatility Spikes, Oh Cisco, the Mighty US Dollar, and More

by

Image Source: CBOE Let’s talk about recent market events May 17. There’s a lot going on. By Brian Nelson, CFA It looks like volatility is back in a big way, with “all 29 volatility indexes at the CBOE ris(ing) today,” one more-than-doubling, the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST). The ridiculously-named “fear gauge” or “fear index” or the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX (VIX) leapt nearly 50%. On May 17, we effectively bought volatility intraday by adding put options to the newsletter portfolios, both on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Netflix, a company whose valuation we think remains ridiculous. We may continue to add put options on entities whose equity prices we believe have become too stretched, positions that may … Read more