CSCO

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

by

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Assessing Reactions to Trump’s Victory

by

Image Source: Gage Skidmore Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States of America. Let’s dig into some of the reactions across the market. We’re keeping our cool. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The global markets often don’t know what to make of surprises, a characteristic that was on full display as news came rolling in that Donald Trump would soon become the 45th President of the United States, “trumping” Secretary Hillary Clinton in a decisive electoral college victory, despite the popular vote eventually going to the Democratic candidate. In the wee hours of the morning Wednesday, November 9, major markets across the globe were in shock, showing red almost across the board. At one … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

by

Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 17

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.64. Allstate (ALL): now $0.89 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.85. Analog Devices (ADI): now $0.86 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.76. Annaly Capital Management 6.95% PFD SER F (NLY.PF): now $0.6076 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5417. Auburn National (AUBN): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.265. Banc of California (BANC): now $0.10 … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

by

President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Our Thoughts on the Widespread Launch of 5G Services

by

Image Shown: The evolution of wireless networks and telecommunications technology over the years. Image Source: Intel Corporation – November 2019 State of 5G Presentation  By Callum Turcan The rollout of 5G telecommunication networks is upon us and we want to draw our members’ attention to some of the key companies with meaningful exposure to this space. Many are excited about what opportunities 5G technology could enable. Background On July 23, AT&T Inc (T) announced its 5G network in the US was operational nationwide and that effective August 7, both consumers and businesses with certain packages would have 5G access “at no additional cost” which included customers with AT&T Unlimited Starter, Extra, Elite, AT&T Business Unlimited Web-Only and Starter wireless plans. … Read more

Sprint, Dish, Clearwire, and SoftBank: The Saga Continues

by

Key Takeaways: ·        The entire Sprint/Clearwire/Dish/SoftBank situation is very complicated. ·        We believe SoftBank’s offer makes more sense for Sprint’s near-term future. ·        However, we like the well-rounded package that a combined Sprint/Dish entity would be able to offer consumers over the long haul, and we tend to have faith in skilled managers like Dish’s CEO Ergen. ·        In any case, we think the saga will eventually result in a winner’s curse—whoever wins the battle for Sprint will likely have paid too much! ·        Ideas o       One industry in particular would be highly in favor of SoftBank’s deal with Sprint—the networking equipment makers. If Sprint receives a huge capital infusion from a SoftBank deal, network upgrade spending would accelerate. Cisco (CSCO) is our favorite fundamental idea … Read more

The “Hierarchy” of Valuentum Idea Generation

by

Let’s talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note. —  A version of this article was sent to members previously. New content has been added.  — Note: We continue to work to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our work, and we are evaluating expanding our update cycle to half-year periods to better bolster the signaling aspects of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI). In our widely-read case study (see here), the VBI showed its ability to rank equity returns over a forward 12-month period, and we think a migration to less-frequent updating may make the most sense to better capture the forward-looking dynamics of the system. We think this will help weed out false breakouts and other noise that could be harmful. You shouldn’t think of … Read more

Earnings Roundup for the Week Ended Sunday, April 19, Covering Companies Across the Board

by

By Callum Turcan Let’s take a look at several earnings reports across numerous industries in this article as the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic forces the global economy to a crawl. Please note that as these reports primarily cover the first quarter of calendar year 2020, the impact of the pandemic has yet to be truly reflected in corporate earnings. That said, these reports still provide an important glimpse into what to expect going forward and how companies are responding to the pandemic. By ticker in alphabetical order: BBBY, CPSS, ISRG, LAKE, MRTN, OFLX, SCHW, TSM Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) Shares of BBBY shot up on April 16 after reporting fourth quarter and full-year results for its fiscal 2019 … Read more