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Must Watch: MPT Failures and High Yield Dividend Breakdown Spiral!

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Did you know that Valuentum’s income ideas are holding up great this year, far better than the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio and what some call “sucker” yields, those companies with 8% dividend yields or higher? — The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is down ~20% so far in 2022 and some high-yield stocks like mortgage REITs are down nearly 40%, but Valuentum’s income-oriented simulated newsletter portfolios, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, are estimated to be down just 8.4% and just 10.1%, respectively, in 2022. — Preventing huge drawdowns in retirement is the name of the game, and those pursuing modern portfolio theory (MPT) have been caught by surprise, while income investors reaching for 8%+ yields may have just experienced permanent … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy

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Video: Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he’s turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more! –——— Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact … Read more

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to “Raise” Incremental Cash

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Video: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by “tapped out” consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market “flush,” and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to “raise” incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes. –——— Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this … Read more

Valuentum’s Unmatched Product Suite

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Hi everyone! — We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value–net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects. — There are a couple things worth reminding readers, however. A good relevant rule of thumb I learned early in my career working for my first portfolio manager is that a stock’s return in the near term is driven roughly 40% by the market, 30% by the industry it operates in, and 30% … Read more

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds

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Transcript During the past several weeks, we’ve grown increasingly concerned about the health of consumer-tied entities across not only the consumer staples but also the consumer discretionary spaces. Many consumer staples entities, while raising prices, aren’t raising them fast enough to drive operating-income and bottom-line expansion, while many consumer-discretionary companies are facing higher freight and logistics costs and weaker performance in China, perhaps best revealed by Nike’s most recently-reported quarter, where inventory advanced 23% compared to the prior-year period. The tell-tale sign about the health of the consumer may be Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day, which is coming up on July 12-13, but based on many of the reports we’ve monitored this past earnings season, even if sales are strong on … Read more

Johnson & Johnson’s Outlook Improving, Steadily Putting Legal Issues Behind It

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Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On a price-only basis, shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are up ~2% year-to-date through the end of regular trading hours on March 22, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down ~6% during this period. We include shares of Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, and we love the company’s resiliency in the face of whatever challenges are thrown at it. In our view, the relative strength seen in Johnson & Johnson’s stock price is the product of its legal strategies moving things in the right direction and the favorable fiscal 2022 … Read more

GoodRx’s Modest Q4 Miss, Slowing Revenue Growth Expectations Send Shares Tumbling

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Image: Many speculative areas have faced tremendous pressure in recent months from new issues to entities tied to the trend of disruptive innovation. Image Source: TradingView. By Valuentum Analysts The past year or so hasn’t been kind to companies tied to the theme of disruptive innovation. New issues such as Snowflake (SNOW), Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM), and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) have also had a rough go at it of late. For example, the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) has fallen almost 20% since late September 2020, while the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has fallen almost 30%. GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX) is one of those companies that hasn’t performed as well. We first wrote up GoodRx Holdings, Inc. in December … Read more

Johnson & Johnson’s Pending Split-Up, Talc Liabilities, New CEO Add Complexity to a Once-Clean Dividend Growth Story

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  Image Shown: J&J continues to face legal liabilities due to talcum powder lawsuits. Image Source: Mike Mozart.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) dividend growth story has become much more complicated in recent years. On a price-only basis, shares of the consumer and pharma giant haven’t been nearly as impressive as that of technology names, but the company still has put up a nice 45% price-only return the past five years, further bolstered by a continuous stream of quarterly dividend payments. J&J yields ~2.6% at the time of this writing, and the company reluctantly remains the bedrock of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, at least for now. The Split-Up Before we dig into J&J’s fourth-quarter 2021 results, … Read more