BIDU

The Best Ideas for 2014 and Beyond: Part I

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The Valuentum Buying Index, our stock selection methodology, identifies firms that are 1) undervalued on a discounted cash-flow basis (e.g. three-stage fully-populated valuation model with complete financial statements), 2) undervalued on a relative value basis versus peers and the firm’s closest competitors, where applicable, and 3) just starting to show interest by investors as measured by technical/momentum indicators, providing the mechanism to drive a firm’s price to its fair value. Without the latter component, investors have a heightened risk of holding an underpriced stock for an extended period of time, one that may turn out to have little prospects for eventual price-to-fair-value convergence. Once a firm is added to the Best Ideas portfolio or Dividend Growth portfolio, generally with a Valuentum … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths

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Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC. By Brian Nelson, CFA The week of trading ending February 7 was a very strange one. Last Sunday, one could have only expected that given the news related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak, the bad news related to airlines (JETS) and aerospace players–Boeing (BA), in particular–and the speculative frenzy associated with Tesla’s (TSLA) rise, that the … Read more

Why We Like Apple and Microsoft in the Newsletter Portfolios

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Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc (blue line) and Microsoft Corporation (red line) are up significantly year-to-date as of the market close on June 19, and we see room for both shares of AAPL and MSFT to continue marching higher after recently revising our fair value estimates for both companies. By Callum Turcan On June 12, we added back shares of Apple Inc (AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (link here). We added Apple and Microsoft back to the newsletter portfolios using the cash position generated by removing the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and the SPDR S&P Aerospace and Defense ETF (XAR) from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio … Read more

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.

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What is Valuentum Securities? Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. How do I subscribe to Valuentum’s investment research services? 1)    Click the following link: signup-page. 2)    Select your membership plan. 3)    Enter your contact details. 4)    Click ‘Sign Up.’ 5)    Complete your purchase. 6)   Your payment profile may be recurring, so please check … Read more

China Trouble: Plenty of Pain to Go Around

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Global stock markets have struggled mightily over the past few weeks, mostly in conjunction with the Federal Reserve hinting at a possible change in monetary policy. There have also been signs that global economic expansion is starting to weaken (read the World Bank’s lowered global outlook for GDP growth here), particularly in China–something we had identified a number of weeks ago as cause for concern prompting us to add protection to our Best Ideas portfolio at that time. It’s clear from recent data that economic growth in China will no longer be in the 9-11% range that the market has grown accustomed to, and it is our view that expansion will never return to such a pace due simply to the size of the country (absent, of course, during a recovery in the event that a deep recession does occur). … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

ICYMI: Time to Consider Buying Chinese Equities? Not Exactly.

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This article was originally published August 26, 2021. Image Shown: Shares of Alibaba Group have plummeted over the past year in the wake of Beijing’s crackdown on China’s domestic tech and fintech titans. By Callum Turcan Many would argue that the key event that kicked off Beijing’s ongoing crackdown on its domestic tech giants started back in October 2020 when the once domestically revered entrepreneur Jack Ma, the founder of e-commerce, fintech, payment solutions, and cloud computing giant Alibaba Group (BABA), gave a speech critical of Chinese regulators. A WSJ article published August 20, Jack Ma’s Costliest Business Lesson: China Has Only One Leader, covered the situation in great detail. Mr. Ma noted at the time that he viewed Beijing’s … Read more