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VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

ICYMI — Podcast: 2nd Annual Nelson Exclusive Yearly Round Up Call

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Tune in to President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s Exclusive Yearly Roundup Call. Ladies and gentlemen, Thank you for joining us on our second annual Nelson Exclusive roundup call. I appreciate your interest very much, and I appreciate your attention even more. Just an important reminder, Valuentum is an information provider, not a broker or financial advisor, and we do not issue recommendations of any kind. With that said, let’s get started. These are the best of times. We have now surpassed the 9-year mark since the March 2009 panic bottom that sent shudders through the global financial system, and the US economy is as strong as it has ever been. US gross domestic product is now approaching $20 trillion … Read more

Structural Changes in the Airline and Aerospace Business

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Image Source: Valuentum A version of this article appeared on our website April 28, 2021. By Brian Nelson, CFA The coronavirus pandemic (“COVID-19”) has fundamentally changed how companies do business. Zoom Video (ZM) has made in-person meetings largely redundant while innovative digital-agreement firms such as DocuSign (DOCU) have only contributed to the “anywhere economy.” Though there may be pent-up demand for in-person meetings and handshake agreements as the number of vaccinations for COVID-19 increase across the globe, many businesses may grow to permanently embrace the “anywhere economy” for its efficiencies and cost savings. This will impact the long-term trajectory of business air travel demand, in our opinion, with implications on the normalized intrinsic values of airlines (JETS), jet makers, and … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 18

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending December 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ADT (ADT): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. AES (AES): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Amgen (AMGN): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.79. Apollo Commercial (ARI): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Apollo Residential Mortgage (AMTG): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.48. AT&T (T): now $0.48 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.47. Boeing (BA): now … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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The “Hierarchy” of Valuentum Idea Generation

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Let’s talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note. —  A version of this article was sent to members previously. New content has been added.  — Note: We continue to work to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our work, and we are evaluating expanding our update cycle to half-year periods to better bolster the signaling aspects of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI). In our widely-read case study (see here), the VBI showed its ability to rank equity returns over a forward 12-month period, and we think a migration to less-frequent updating may make the most sense to better capture the forward-looking dynamics of the system. We think this will help weed out false breakouts and other noise that could be harmful. You shouldn’t think of … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

S&P 500 Poised to Make New Highs…Again?

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The equity markets have welcomed a strong earnings season thus far, but valuation risk and tail uncertainties remain, not the least of which is the possibility of failed tax reform in the US. By Brian Nelson, CFA Money is cheap, and investors are partying like its 1999 all over again. The latest move on the trading vehicle for the S&P 500, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is yet again approaching new highs. We like the ongoing momentum in the stock market, something that we outlined in our “shocking” predictions for 2017, but we continue to reiterate our cautious stance, not only with respect to underlying valuations but also as it relates to the possibility of failed tax reform in … Read more

Roaring 20s? — Consumer Staples Valuations Stretched

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Strong outlooks for Kimberly-Clark, United Technologies, Hexcel and Lockheed Martin point to an economy that is still gaining momentum. We caution investors of consumer staples stocks, however, with many equities holding large net debt positions, and the sector trading at almost 20 times forward earnings. Learn about the difference between the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive publication and much more in this note. Image Source: Alan Levine — By Brian Nelson, CFA Welcome new members!    As you’re getting familiar with the website, please watch the Navigation Video. For those passionate about financial analysis and to see how deep our team goes with our research, please watch the Financial Analysis Video. Finally, don’t forget to flip through the , and read our … Read more