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Hard Work and the Trust That Binds

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Image Source: Terry Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ll have our traditional Valuentum Weekly email coming out on Sunday, and I’m excited to say our team is putting the finishing touches on our technology industry update, so we’ll have a whole bunch of fresh reports for you to look at Sunday evening/Monday morning. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April … Read more

Qualcomm Explodes Higher Towards Our Fair Value Estimate; Semiconductor Supply Chain Update

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Image Source: Qualcomm’s shares have surged toward our fair value estimate. We continue to like shares of this dividend growth giant. By Brian Nelson, CFA  On November 3, communications chip-maker Qualcomm (QCOM) reported strong results for its fiscal fourth quarter (the calendar third quarter), rounding out an excellent fiscal 2021. We’re reiterating our $170 per share fair value estimate for QCOM and the company as an idea for long-term dividend growth investors. Shares yield ~1.7% at the time of this writing. The growth rates in revenues, earnings before taxes (EBT), net income, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) were fantastic for the fiscal year. On a GAAP basis, revenues leapt 43%, EBT advanced 80%, net income jumped 74%, while EPS … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more

Apple Remains a Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse

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Image Shown: Apple Inc remained a free cash flow generating powerhouse in fiscal 2021. Key line-items are underlined in red and blue. Image Source: Apple Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Financial Supplement with additions from the author By Callum Turcan On October 28, Apple Inc (AAPL) reported fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended September 25, 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates and matched consensus bottom-line estimates. Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook, noted during the firm’s latest earnings call that “we set a new September quarter record of $83.4 billion” though “supply constraints” weighed negatively on its performance and “had around a $6 billion revenue dollar impact” last fiscal quarter. Silicon shortages were cited as a key headwind, with … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Enters Bidding War to Bolster Automotive Growth Runway

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Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – March 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite semiconductor plays is Qualcomm Inc (QCOM). For those just getting familiar with the name, the company is about much more than just supplying components used in smartphones. While the rollout of 5G-capable smartphones will provide Qualcomm’s medium-term financial performance a large boost due to its Snapdragon mobile platform offerings, another key aspect of Qualcomm’s promising growth story is its exposure to the automotive industry. Background Information Historically, Qualcomm has focused on supplying components to the automotive industry in the realm of infotainment (such as enabling radio, TV, mapping, and navigation services), telematics (combining automotive technologies with telecommunications and other technologies), and … Read more

Microsoft’s Dividend Is Rock Solid But Why?

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Image Shown: Valuentum’s Dividend Report on Microsoft. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio for Microsoft. At the core, the larger the numerator, or the healthier a company’s balance sheet and future free cash flow generation, relative to the denominator, or a company’s cash dividend obligations, the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, Microsoft’s numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction image puts sources of free cash in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Proactively Managing Fallout from Global Chip Shortage

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Image Shown: Qualcomm Inc, one of our favorite semiconductor firms, noted in March 2021 that the rollout of 5G wireless networks is accelerating which in turn supports its outlook. We include shares of QCOM as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders IR Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite ways to gain exposure to the semiconductor industry is Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), and we include shares of QCOM as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Qualcomm’s IP portfolio and the “chips” that it designs play an essential role in enabling 5G connectivity in smartphones, powering the digital capabilities of modern automobiles, and supporting wireless network operations … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Nvidia Growing at a Brisk Pace Amid Chip Shortage

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Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – GTC Spring 2021 Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 26, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended May 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Demand for Nvidia’s chips used in data center and gaming offerings remains robust. Looking ahead, Nvidia provided guidance for the fiscal second quarter during its latest earnings update that indicated its strong performance was expected to continue. Earnings Update Revenue from Nvidia’s ‘Gaming’ business operating segment was up 106% year-over-year and 11% sequentially last fiscal quarter as demand for laptops and desktops remained strong. The work-from-home trend became a big part of the weekly routine for many households in the … Read more

Video: Apple’s Cash Based Sources of Intrinsic Value and Dividend Health

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Image Shown: Inside an Apple store. Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA The core of stock valuation centers on two cash-based drivers: the net cash a company has on its balance sheet and the enterprise free cash flows that it will generate in the future, discounted back to today at a reasonable discount rate. After subtracting the value of other components of the capital structure such as preferred stock or debt from the sum of net cash and the present value of future enterprise free cash flows and dividing by total diluted shares outstanding, the result is called a fair value estimate. The fair value estimate is then compared to the stock price to determine if shares are undervalued or … Read more