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Recent Data Indicates US Consumer Spending Holding Up Well, Online Sales Surging

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Image Shown: As of this writing, the S&P 500 (SPY) appears ready to end 2020 on a high note, supported by the resilience of the US consumer. By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic accelerated the shift towards e-commerce, and that change has long legs. Retailers that previously invested in their digital operations and omni-channel sales capabilities were able to capitalize on this shift while those that relied heavily on foot traffic were hurt badly. Numerous retailers went under in 2020 including J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCPNQ) and Neiman Marcus. Holiday season shopping data indicates that US consumer spending was frontloaded and grew modestly in 2020, aided by surging e-commerce sales, which advanced nearly 50% on a year-over-year basis. … Read more

Kohl’s Dead Cat Bounce May Still Have Legs

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Image: Kohl’s is breaking out of a month-long base on better-than-expected financial health and expectations that it will reinstate its dividend next year. By Brian Nelson, CFA The list of defunct department stores in the United States is a long one. The proliferation of e-commerce accelerated by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic may have all but sealed the fate of many big box department stores that had already been struggling for years. Consumers want quality, price and convenience, and getting what they need with the click of a button on the Internet means those with sprawling real estate stores need to excel at digital initiatives, omnichannel strategies, and rightsizing their footprints–or they’ll perish like so many have before them. … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Valuentum Website Overview

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Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

L Brands Beats Low Expectations

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Image Shown: Though shares of L Brands Inc are up year-to-date, they remain down significantly over the past five years as of this writing (before taking dividend considerations into account). By Callum Turcan The owner of the Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Bath & Body Works retail brands L Brands Inc (LB) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) on August 19 that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, those estimates were a low bar to beat as analysts had already factored in the significant headwinds the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic created for its business. Last fiscal quarter, L Brands reopened most of its stores and leaned on e-commerce sales channels to meet customer demand … Read more

Lululemon Athletica Buys MIRROR

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Quarterly Financial Supplements By Callum Turcan On June 29, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) announced it was acquiring home fitness company MIRROR for $500 million in cash. MIRROR sells ~$1,500 (before taxes and installation fees) screens that come with a camera and speaker system that allow users to participate in at-home workouts assisted by trainers/videos. That offering comes with a $39 per month digital subscription which allows the user (or users, up to six people per household) to access on-demand and live workout sessions, and additionally, personal training sessions cost up to $40 each. Overview Lululemon first invested in MIRROR back in mid-2019 and will run the firm as a standalone … Read more

Nike Doubles Down on Its Digital Strategy

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Image Shown: Shares of Nike sold off moderately on June 26 after reporting its full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended May 31, 2020), though please note shares of NKE have rebounded sharply from their March 2020 lows. Over the past year shares of Nike are still up ~15% as of this writing, outpacing the 4% gain seen at the S&P 500 (SPY) before taking dividend considerations into account. By Callum Turcan Retailers of consumer discretionary products that invested heavily in their digital presence and direct-to-consumer sales/distribution systems before the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic put themselves in a much better position to ride out the storm. Nike Inc (NKE) reported that its digital sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

Lululemon Supported by Strong Digital Sales

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Infographic By Callum Turcan On June 11, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 3, 2020) that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s strong digital sales were offset by the negative impact of containment efforts to stop the spread of coronavirus (‘COVID-19’), namely store closures (both company-owned and third-party retail locations). Shares of LULU are still up comfortably year-to-date as of this writing, in large part due to its pristine balance sheet and past investments in its digital infrastructure and digital sales channels. We covered these two aspects of its business model and why that would be a source of strength … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more