YUM

Best Ideas: Reiterating ~$240 Fair Value on Facebook; Adding Chipotle

by

We couldn’t be more pleased with Facebook’s first-quarter 2018 results, and we are reiterating our ~$240 per-share fair value estimate on the company. We’re also adding Chipotle as an idea to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we’re putting three other speculative considerations on your radar. By Brian Nelson, CFA Facebook (FB) seems to be back in the driver’s seat. We never thought it was out of the race, but many may have thought the negative press would do its shares in … permanently. Not the case. Facebook’s first-quarter 2018 results were fantastic, adding to other strong reports from core simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas, “A Trifecta of Good Reports: Visa, Facebook, PayPal.” Shares of Facebook still look … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

by

Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

by

Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Market Valuations Not “Insane” But Certainly Not Cheap Either

by

The stock market is not insanely overpriced, but it is certainly not cheap either. We’re watching the technicals and moves in the 10-year Treasury closely for signs of where the market may go next. We discuss Walmart’s recent disappointment and add another to the list of companies that the Dividend Cushion ratio effectively highlighted the heightened income risk profile of, prior to the dividend cut. Chipotle is on the move! By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA According to the February 16, 2018 release of Factset’s Earnings Insight, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is still north of 17 times, above both the 5-year average of 16 and the 10-year average of 14.3. The “right” multiple for … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 26

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending January 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M (MMM): now $1.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.17. AGCO (AGCO): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.95. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.535. Alliance Data Systems (ADS): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Risky Restaurants? Taking a Look at Chipotle and Domino’s Pizza

by

Image Source: Valuentum Chipotle and Domino’s Pizza have very little in common, in our view, but let’s take a look at what has been causing volatility in each company’s stock of late. By Kris Rosemann Burrito giant and once-beloved Chipotle (CMG) continues to attempt to battle back to prominence in the fast-casual restaurant space–an area in which it was once the golden child but now looks to be a prodigal son at best. The burrito-maker’s comeback story experienced a bit of a setback as shares dropped nearly 15% in the trading session October 25 after releasing third quarter 2017 results after the close October 24. Revenue grew nearly 9% in the period on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, restaurant … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

by

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Examining Same-Store Sales in the Restaurant Industry

by

Key Takeaways September 2016 marked the fourth consecutive month of same-store restaurant sales declines, but the pressure is not indiscriminant. Millennials account for nearly a quarter of restaurant spending and are anticipated to account for 40% of restaurant purchases by 2020. Their preferences are becoming important considerations for the strategic planning of restaurants. Fast food restaurants with exposure to the coffee and breakfast segments appear to be faring better than those with limited or no exposure to the segments. Experiential dining is becoming increasingly important in the full-service arena as the gap between grocery prices and food away from home prices has widened of late.     By Kris Rosemann The broader restaurant sector (BITE) has been under pressure as of … Read more