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One Dividend Suspension and Five Other Disappointments

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The wreckage in crude oil prices has left many in awe of the range of probable outcomes for the commodity even over a multi-month period, let alone a multi-year period. The precipitous decline has forced high-yielding equities such as Linn Energy (LINE) and Seadrill (SDRL) to slash their income payouts and begin the long road to recovery, as it has pushed the backs of others, including Legacy Reserves (LGCY), against the wall. Investor confidence, once lost, however may never be regained, and management teams know this. A dividend cut will always be the last resort, but crude oil hasn’t been the only commodity falling out of favor. Copper and iron ore have also seen much better days, too. January 26 … Read more

Verizon Warns, AT&T and Sprint Sell Off

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The telecom services industry is in a pricing war, and we want no part of it. From outlining how AT&T’s (T) best dividend growth years are behind it (see its dividend report ) and revealing Verizon’s (VZ) potentially prohibitive debt load (see here) to Sprint’s (S) cutthroat pricing behavior and T-Mobile’s (TMUS) aggressive marketing, we’ve been pounding the table on how the telecom services industry is a mess right now. Verizon announced in a warning December 8 that the operating environment is not getting any better, and in our view, it may not for some time: As (Verizon) is accelerating the upgrades of high-quality customers to 4G, total retail postpaid disconnects are trending higher both sequentially and year over year … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

AT&T Is Not a Position in Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Portfolio

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Sometimes it’s difficult to entertain a variant perspective on a tried-and-true investment. But that’s what we think investors should do when they think about AT&T’s dividend growth potential. AT&T’s Valuentum Dividend Cushion score is below 1 (meaning that the sum of our expectations of the company’s future dividend payments and existing debt balance overwhelms the sum of its future expected free cash flow and existing cash balance). We don’t expect this telecom bellwether to cut its dividend anytime soon (especially given its shareholder base, which comprises mostly of investors holding shares for the dividend payment), but we think there are many other more attractive places for long-term dividend growth than AT&T’s equity. The historical track record of a company’s dividend … Read more

Verizon Posts Highest Adjusted EBITDA Margin in 8 years; Pro forma Debt Load Reduces Attractiveness of Idea

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On Tuesday, Verizon’s (VZ) fourth-quarter performance showed us why we had been considering the firm for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Newsletter. The company experienced revenue growth across all strategic areas (84% of business), showcasing 3.4% year-over-year expansion. The most recent quarter marked the fifth consecutive period of at least 8% service revenue year-over-year growth. The communication giant’s strong cost management controls sent its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to the highest levels in 8 years (34.9%), a very impressive showing. Wireless segment EBITDA jumped more than 22% from last year’s quarter. Verizon’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66 was also impressive, coming in nearly 74% higher than the level posted in the same period a year ago. For all of 2013, the … Read more

SoftBank Reported to Be Exploring a Deal for Sprint to Scoop Up T-Mobile

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On Friday, Bloomberg reported that SoftBank is exploring a deal for Sprint (S) to scoop up the majority of T-Mobile US (TMUS). The news outlet reported that SoftBank has discussed financing a bid with as many as six banks, including Credit Suisse, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs. The banks are reported to be the same ones that backed the SoftBank-Sprint tie-up. According to Bloomberg’s sources: The plan would be to take control of T-Mobile by paying cash for the 67 percent stake owned by Deutsche Telekom AG…Sprint would then be integrated with T-Mobile, combining the third- and fourth-largest U.S. wireless carriers. Deutsche Telekom has said that it’s prepared to sell its $16 billion stake in T-Mobile, which has mostly been an … Read more

Verizon’s Investment Grade Credit Rating May Be Challenged

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On Thursday, Verizon (VZ) reported better than expected top- and bottom-line performance in its third quarter, which showed impressive subscriber additions and healthy iPhone sales. We continue to evaluate Verizon for addition to the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter, though we note its pursuit of Verizon Wireless has complicated matters quite a bit (given the outsize debt load it will take on). We’d like to see how the financials shake-out post-transaction, as there are quite a few moving parts that will negatively impact the firm’s Valuentum Dividend Cushion score (and potentially challenge its investment-grade rating). Verizon added 1.1 million net retail wireless connections and 927,000 net retail postpaid connections in the period, leading to quarter-end marks of 101.2 million total … Read more

Rising Rates Spur Verizon-Vodafone Deal

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Although financing isn’t fully secured yet, earlier this week Verizon (click ticker for report: ) and Vodafone (click ticker for report: ) agreed to a $130 billion deal for Verizon to acquire Vodafone’s 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. The deal values Verizon Wireless at nearly $290 billion (or nearly 10 times EBITDA), and it could immediately boost earnings per share by 2%-10%. Though this is certainly a large deal, we think Verizon acted quickly to capitalize on interest rates that have moved sharply to the upside in recent months (it didn’t want to wait for a further increase, which may have made the deal cost-prohibitive). As we noted in our prior discussion of the deal, rising rates and a declining … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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