The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
The Price of Good Investment Research?
Photo credit: Phlebotomy Tech; Thomas Haynie Skimping on research could cost you big when the you-know-what hits the fan. Research firms are reportedly charging as much as $5,000 per hour for one-on-one meetings with top analysts. Access to basic research is now being priced at $40,000 a year at some firms. By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s a lot happening in the investment research business these days. My good friends at Morningstar (MORN) were recently “called out” over concerns about the perception of their star ratings on mutual funds, other providers had been hosting promotional research on their website, and some of the top banks are completely doing away with their analyst staff as the competitive environment heats up. Many a charter … Read more
Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
Crisis In Wall Street Stock Research; The Solution? Independent Investment Research
Image Source: Sam Valadi “New Wall Street Conflict: Analysts Say ‘Buy’ to Win Special Access for Their Clients… Securing face time for investors with top executives has become a vital revenue source for securities firms…” – Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2017 By Brian Nelson, CFA It is no surprise that buyside firms tend to prefer sell-side institutions that can get them access to the head honchos of companies. Buyside analysts and portfolio managers are talented, and some may have even come from the sell-side (in a previous life, if you can get them to admit it). In many cases, they know exactly what they’re doing (how to analyze a company or industry), and perhaps they have been doing so … Read more
The Times They Are a-Changing
This article was first published September 2013. It has not been updated. It has been republished to recognize the Nobel Prize in Literature being awarded to Bob Dylan October 13, 2016. Image Source: Mikko Tarvainen Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won’t come again And don’t speak too soon For the wheel’s still in spin And there’s no tellin’ who That it’s namin’ For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin’. — Bob Dylan – Times They Are a-Changin I was reading an article the other day that had come to the conclusion that stock funds will get more asset flows (read: be easier … Read more
Booyah! Jim Cramer Under Attack!
TheStreet’s director, major shareholder, and employee is under fire from an activist investor that has disclosed a near-9% stake. Per SEC Filing: J. Carlo CannellCannell Capital LLCP.O. Box 3459, 150 East Hansen Avenue, Jackson, WY 83001(307) 733-2284 Mr. James J. CramerDirectorTheStreet, Inc.14 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005 Cannell Capital LLC – that twenty-two-year-old SEC-registered investment advisor which manages sundry accounts that collectively owned 8.95% percent of TheStreet,Inc. (“TST” or the “Company”) as of December 2, 2014 – hereby amends its filing position as regards TST from passive to active because certain matters of governance concern it. The structure of your relationship with TST leads these concerns. Allow me to review some facts. 1. The market capitalization of TST has … Read more
Is Predicting Stock Prices Easy? 100% of Economists Say “No Way!”
By Brian Nelson, CFA “Don’t get frustrated if one or two of your ideas don’t work out. This is to be expected in a portfolio of stocks. You’re investing to achieve your goals. It is only human and natural to be wrong sometimes.” The University of Chicago’s Initiative on Global Markets frequently puts out a survey from a variety of different standpoints on relevant issues of the day. Though the write-up from the World Economic Forum goes into countering “the general perception that economists rarely agree on anything,” we were quite interested in one particular dynamic: 100% of economists think predicting stock prices is difficult, while 45% of the public thinks predicting stock prices is not difficult (presumably easy). The … Read more
Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update
Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more
Analyst Job Preservation and the Conflicts of Interest That Prevail
“I’d rather lose half of my clients than lose half of my clients’ money.” – Jean-Marie Eveillard (First Eagle Global) I think very few investment research firms other than Valuentum can say that they are truly free from conflicts of interest. As shown in the excerpt from FINRA attached at the end of this article, there are at least five sources of analyst conflict of interest: investing banking relationships, analyst compensation, brokerage commissions, buy-side pressures, and ownership interests. No matter how much you may want to believe that sell-side equity research, or research provided by companies such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs, is free from conflicts of interest, it simply is not. Valuentum prides itself on being one of … Read more