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Major Automakers: Fundamental Uncertainty But Potential Investment Opportunity…Soon

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Source: YCharts The fates of major US automakers General Motors and Ford remain as tethered as ever, but we remain in awe at how punitive “this” frothy market is on their respective valuations. For one, GM is trading at 5 times forward adjusted earnings and boasts a near-5% dividend yield! By Kris Rosemann The market has been very kind to some, but perhaps overly punitive to others. While dividend-rich consumer staples giants continue to garner the favor of investors, “A Kleenex? Consumer Staples Trading At Nosebleed Levels (August 2016),” the ‘Detroit Three’ — Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Chrysler (FCAU) — have all trailed the S&P 500 Index (SPY) return thus far in 2016 due to a variety of … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Throw December Auto Sales Numbers Away; December Ice Storms and a Late Thanksgiving Holiday to Blame

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The excuses for the subpar selling performance at automakers in December (up just 0.3%) were many: the frigid ice and snow storms that scared customers away; a late Thanksgiving holiday that stole sales from the month; and a shortened holiday shopping season that left consumers scrambling to buy holiday gifts for family and friends, as opposed to spending time car shopping. Though the impact of each contributing factor is difficult to measure, we think the combination of these items was the main culprit for disappointing December auto sales, not that the consumer has decided to forgo car purchases and that the upswing in auto sales has come to an abrupt halt. Some caution is starting to creep into the market—see … Read more

Ford Shines Bright in November; Potential Channel Stuffing By GM; Toyota Suggests Industry Sales at Fastest Pace Since 2007; Nissan Sets November Record; Honda’s Second-Best November Performance

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On Tuesday, Best Ideas portfolio holding Ford (F) put up its best November US auto sales performance in almost a decade. US sales at the automaker advanced 7% in the month, exceeding the mid-5% consensus forecast, while retail sales were up 9% for the period. The F-Series topped 60,000 sales for the seventh consecutive month (it sold 65,501 F-Series trucks in the month, up 16% on a year-over-year basis), and passenger car strength was led by Fusion and Fiesta sales, which jumped 51% and 26%, respectively. Total passenger car sales achieved the best sales result since 2002. November was a month to remember for Ford!  The automaker announced that it would build 770,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2014 … Read more

US Auto Market Shows Resolve in August; Ford Remains Our Best Idea; C-Max Outselling Tesla’s Model S

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During the past two years, we’ve never wavered on our bullish take on the domestic automotive sector—pent-up demand, inexpensive credit, and a rapidly age fleet have all combined to propel a robust automotive comeback. August was no different, with the SAAR topping 16.1 million units during the month. Let’s take a look at how some of the auto makers performed. Ford Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) posted fabulous August sales results as unit sales surged 12.2% year-over-year to 221,270 units. Retail sales were up 20% year-over-year, and Ford could hardly produce enough vehicles to meet demand, adding 1,400 workers at its Flat Rock Assembly. F-Series sales continued to lead the way, with unit sales … Read more

Cooper Tire & Rubber Receives a Generous Takeover Bid

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Early Wednesday morning, American tire company Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB) announced that it agreed to be acquired by India-based Apollo Tyres for $35 per share ($2.5 billion) in cash. Not only did we peg Cooper’s fair value at $35 per share, the firm also appeared on our list of  The 25 Cheapest Stocks on the Market over $10, perhaps marking one of our best stock calls thus far this year. Apollo paid a 43% premium over the previous day’s closing price, right in line with our above-market fair value estimate. We think Apollo’s offer was fair, and we think the newly-combined entity will be a stronger company. Fears of Cooper’s heavy pension obligations and concerns about intense competition from … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

GM and Ford Tune Up Operations for the Future of Automaking

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Image source: GM first-quarter earnings report The US auto behemoths continue to place a greater importance on efficient operations and the health of their bottom lines as the industry may be reaching a relative peak in terms of light vehicle production for this economic cycle and as the future of the auto landscape remains uncertain. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Both GM and Ford are keeping a keen eye on the future of the evolving auto and personal transportation markets. We continue to like shares of GM relative to Ford, even as we say we like the direction in which Ford appears to be heading. GM’s shares are trading at an ultra-low earnings multiple, and it pays a very strong … Read more