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Our Thoughts on Chevron Buying Noble Energy

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Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy Inc that was announced in July 2020. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – July 2020 Noble Energy Acquisition Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 20, Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced it was acquiring Noble Energy Inc (NBL) through a $5.0 billion all-stock transaction, or $13.0 billion when factoring in net debt and the book value of non-controlling interests. Shareholders of Noble Energy will receive approximately 0.12 share of Chevron for each share of Noble Energy. At the time the deal was announced, shareholders of NBL were receiving a ~12% premium based on the ten-day average closing stock prices. Chevron intends to issue ~58 million shares to cover the deal, keeping … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Historic Oil Deal Reached

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Image Source: Chevron Corporation (CVX) – March 2020 Security Analyst Meeting Presentation By Callum Turcan Over the Easter holiday weekend, members from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’), non-OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ group (countries that in the recent past have joined forces with OPEC to curtail global oil supplies in a formal manner), and non-OPEC members outside of the OPEC+ group such as Brazil (EWZ), Canada (EWC), and the United States (SPY) came to an agreement to cut their collective oil output by north of 10 million barrels per day. Global oil and other raw energy resource prices (USO, BNO) have been simply demolished year-to-date due to a combination of demand destruction from the ongoing … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Yearly Round Up

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Select the following link to access the Annual Exclusive Call. Select HERE to Access the Exclusive Call Recording ———- Transcript Provided Below. President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for your attendance. Today marks three years since we first launched the Exclusive publication. The Exclusive is our premiere offering for sophisticated investors and builds upon our successes of the past, not only in establishing one of the first methodologies that successfully blends enterprise valuation with behavioral valuation and technical and momentum indicators, but also in making such a process available to individuals, financial advisors and institutional investors in full transparency. The Exclusive publication is in many ways an extension of the strong performance of both the … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Chevron’s Promising Cash Flow Growth Outlook

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Image Source: Chevron Corporation – May 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The outlook for the global energy complex is bright and getting brighter as public health authorities utilize widespread coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine distribution efforts to put an end to the pandemic. We added shares of Chevron Corporation (CVX) to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 27 (link here) in order to gain exposure to the ongoing recovery in the global energy complex via a high-quality integrated oil major. Shares of CVX yield ~5.1% as of this writing. Asset Overview Chevron’s collection of upstream assets (involved in the extraction of raw energy resources from the ground) includes operations all over the world with some notable … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week April 22

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 22. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      AmeriServ Financial (ASRV): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.025. Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC): now $0.909 per share dividend, was Ch$1.64751729. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. CapStar Financial (CSTR): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. (CCU): now $0.3084 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.309 per share semi-annual dividend. Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN): … Read more

ExxonMobil’s Great Earnings Report and Promising Growth Outlook

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Image Shown: An overview of ExxonMobil Corporation’s strategy to generate shareholder value going forward. Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We added shares of ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) as an idea to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios back on June 27 (link here) to gain greater exposure to the ongoing recovery in the global energy complex. On a day-to-day, month-to-month basis, raw energy resources pricing (crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids) will bounce around (commodity prices are inherently volatile). However, what we have been interested in the most is the sharp recovery seen in raw energy resources pricing since the start of 2021. That includes … Read more