PSA

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Public Storage Raises Outlook

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Image Source: Public Storage By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 30, Public Storage (PSA) reported mixed second quarter results with revenue coming in a bit light relative to Street forecasts, while funds from operations beat consensus. Net income allocable to common shareholders was $1.76 per diluted share, while core FFO allocable to common shareholders was $4.28 per diluted share. The storage giant achieved 78.8% same store direct net operating income margin in the period. Public Storage acquired sixteen self-storage facilities in the quarter with 1.1 million net rentable square feet and opened two newly developed facilities and completed various expansion projects, which combined added 0.2 million net rentable square feet. Management had the following to say about the results and … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Public Storage Impacted by California Wildfires

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Image Source: Public Storage By Brian Nelson, CFA Public Storage (PSA) reported mixed fourth quarter results February 24 with revenue coming in line with the Street’s expectations, but funds from operations (FFO) falling below the consensus forecast. Net income allocable to common shareholders was $3.21 per diluted share, while core FFO allocable to common shareholders was $4.21 per diluted share. In the fourth quarter, Public Storage achieved 79.2% same store direct net operating income margin, acquired 17 self-storage facilities with 1.3 million net rentable square feet, and opened three new facilities and completed several expansion projects that added 0.4 million net rentable square feet. At the end of 2024, Public Storage had a number of facilities in development and expansion, … Read more

Public Storage’s Core FFO Comfortably Covers Its Dividend

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Image: Public Storage is bouncing off lows hit in late 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA Public Storage (PSA) reported mixed third quarter results October 30 with revenue coming in-line with expectations and funds from operations missing the consensus forecast slightly. Revenue was up 3.8%, to $1.19 billion, while net income allocable to common shareholders came in at $2.16 per share, down from $3.20 per share in the same period in 2023 due to an increase in foreign currency losses, an increase in depreciation and amortization expense, and an increase in interest expense, offset in part by an increase of $11.7 million in self-storage net operating income. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Performance is stabilizing across our … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

In the News: MO, META, QCOM, PSA, ALB

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Altria Group’s (MO) Performance to Be Weighted to the Second Half of the Year On July 31, Altria Group reported second-quarter results that came in lower than expectations. Revenue net of excise taxes declined 3% to $5.3 billion as the firm experienced lower net revenue in its smokeable product segment, which was not completely offset by higher net revenue in its oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in unchanged at $1.31, as lower other operating companies income was offset by a lower share count. The company narrowed its full-year 2024 earnings per share guidance to the range of $5.07-$5.15, representing an adjusted diluted earnings per share growth rate of 2.5%-4.0%. Altria Group … Read more

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration

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Image: Energy Transfer, Philip Morris, and Altria have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF (SDY) since the beginning of 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market remains laser-focused on inflation readings and employment trends – two of the main dynamics that influence policy at the Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of 2024, the market has ratcheted down expectations of rate cuts from as many as 5 or 6 to just 1 or 2 in 2024. With yields on risk-free instruments poised to go lower soon, a focus on high yielding equities may be appropriate for the income investor. Here are three high dividend yielders that we like for consideration. Energy Transfer (ET) Midstream pipeline operator Energy Transfer has come … Read more