Best Ideas Transaction Alert: Adding This Economic Castle

We added a brand new 2% position to the Best Ideas portfolio today in highest-rated Economic Castle Priceline (PCLN) today. Specifically, we added 3 shares at the open price, $1,248.97.   The leader in global online hotel reservations is executing fantastically, and the firm’s valuation presents a material opportunity. Shares now register a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index, and while we fully acknowledge the fundamental risks associated with an idea tied to cyclical end markets so late into the economic recovery, we think an adequate margin of safety exists.   The firm’s stock price is breaking through to the upside of its multi-month flagging pattern, and it now appears ripe for the picking. Investors should expect shares to be highly volatile in coming periods, … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Priceline Approaches $1,000

Online travel broker Priceline (click ticker for report: ) reported stellar second quarter results Thursday afternoon. Revenue surged 27% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, slightly above consensus estimates. Non-GAAP earnings per share jumped 24% year-over-year to $9.70, far ahead of consensus expectations. Free cash flow year-to-date totaled $740 million, an impressive 25% of total revenue. Our Fair Value Estimates Are Forward-Looking After finishing its acquisition of Kayak in May, Priceline posted gross bookings (total amount spent on travel/rental cars/etc.) of $10.1 billion, 38% higher than the same period a year ago. International bookings drove the lion’s share of the growth, surging 44% year-over-year to $8.6 billion. Image Source: PCLN 2Q 2013 With such robust growth, we think a few trends are … Read more

Priceline Posts Fantastic Third-Quarter Results

Online travel service and hotel reservations firm Priceline (click ticker for report: ) reported fantastic third-quarter results Thursday that showed solid gross travel bookings expansion and better-than-expected performance in Europe. Our fair value estimate remains unchanged. The company’s revenue advanced 17.4% from the year-ago period thanks to solid performance in its international operations, where sales grew 42% on a local currency basis. Third-quarter travel bookings increased 25.2% and 33.8% on a local currency basis from the same period a year ago. Image Source: Priceline Priceline’s operating income jumped 22.6% and GAAP earnings per share increased over 27% during the period. On a non-GAAP basis, earnings per share increased roughly 25% from last year’s quarter, to $12.40, better than consensus expectations of … Read more

Priceline’s Guidance Implies Near-Term Headwinds

Online travel firm Priceline (click ticker for report: ) reported strong second quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon. Revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, which was in-line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net income per share grew a whopping 43% to $7.85, which was substantially higher than the Street’s estimate of $7.39. However, Priceline’s third quarter guidance implies substantial quarter-over-quarter deterioration. Total bookings are expected to grow 10%-18% (19%-27% on a constant currency basis) on just 5% domestic booking growth. This compares to a 26.8% growth rate for gross bookings during the second quarter and implies significant headwinds abroad. Non-GAAP net income per share is expected to be $11.10 to $12.10 per share—still above its $9.95 in earnings during the third quarter of 2011 but … Read more

Priceline.com Reports Strong Fourth-Quarter Results

Priceline.com (PCLN) reported strong fourth-quarter results that showed continued momentum with respect to bookings growth. Though we will be revisiting our valuation on the online travel provider, we don’t expect to make a material change to it. The company’s revenue advanced 35.5% during the period, as international operations increased nearly 63% from last year’s quarter. During the period, fourth-quarter gross travel bookings, increased nearly 52%. Gross profit performed even better than firmwide top-line expansion, jumping over 50% in the quarter. Further, Priceline.com was able to leverage its cost structure such that operating income expansion exceeded both revenue and gross profit increases at a nearly 61% jump. The firm’s GAAP net income for the fourth quarter came in at $4.41 per … Read more

Priceline.com Beats Expectations in Third Quarter; Best Airline Ticketing Growth in Seven Quarters

Priceline.com (PCLN) reported solid third-quarter results after the close Monday. We are maintaining our $584 per share fair value estimate. The firm’s gross travel bookings increased an impressive 56.2% from the same period a year ago, while revenue jumped 45% led by international sales expansion (which increased almost 80% in the period). The company noted that its airline ticketing business experienced its strongest quarterly growth in the last seven quarters, with sales increasing 8%. Importantly, the firm was able to leverage this tremendous sales growth into an 83% increase in operating income, a very nice showing. Non-GAAP net income jumped almost 90% from the same period a year ago, and diluted earnings per share came in at $9.95, above consensus … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform