The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
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NYCB
Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
The Coming “Goldman Sachs Era”
Valuentum covers recent developments in the financials sector, including hopes for a relaxation of certain prohibitive Dodd-Frank rules that, if repealed, could pave the way for improved economic returns across the banking sector during the Trump administration. A look back at the month of September 2008, and how Goldman Sachs may very well shape the financial markets during the next few years are two other areas in the piece. Financials stocks have come roaring back since Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. We’ve participated. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been more than 8 years now. The month of September 2008 shaped my view of the financials and banking sector more than any other month possibly could–The … Read more
Podcast: Why ETFs and Roasting the Banks
The Valuentum analyst team talks about why we don’t like the business models of banking entities, why they are currently destroying economic value, but also why the team includes exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. What gives? Find out in this ~9 minute podcast. If you cannot view the video, please view the transcript that follows. Tickerized for holdings in the exchange traded funds, XLF and KBE, and for various financials-oriented ETFs. Kris Rosemann: Hello and welcome to the Valuentum Securities podcast. My name is Kris Rosemann Associate Investment Analyst at Valuentum. With me is Chris Araos and Brian Nelson President of Equity Research and ETF Analysis at Valuentum. Today, we are going to have a quick discussion over … Read more
The Mortgage Refinancing Boom Could Be Ending
Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more
Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Firms: 4 Very Good Reasons
Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 2
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AFLAC (AFL): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.68 per share variable quarterly dividend and $0.34 per share special dividend, was $0.65. Atkore International (ATKR): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend. AvalonBay Communities (AVB): now $1.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.65. Baker Hughes (BKR): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Bank of Botetourt … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 8
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 8. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Acushnet (GOLF): now $0.215 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.195. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. PFD SER A (AQN.PR.A:CA): now CAD 0.4110 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.3226. American Express (AXP): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.60. Apollo Bancorp, Inc. (APLO): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of June 7
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 7. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Accor SA (ACCYY): now $0.252 per share annual dividend, was $0.232. Aeroports de Paris SA (ARRPY): now $0.272 per share annual dividend, was $0.223. ageas SA/NV (AGESY): now $1.318 per share annual dividend, was $1.119. Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): now $1.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.27. Aura Minerals (ORAAF): now $0.35 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.25. Banco BBVA Argentina (BBAR): now … Read more
2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?
Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more