NVR

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Still Bullish — Stocks for the Long Run!

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Excuses not to pick stocks are only exposing biases these days. By Brian Nelson, CFA The S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and Nasdaq (QQQ) continue to hover near all-time highs, and all appears well. We maintain our bullish take on the markets and believe that we are in the early innings of a long bull market that started following the washout March 2020 during the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown. Stock bull markets tend to average about 4.4 years in duration, with the last one enduring ~11 years, while bear markets are very abrupt, lasting only 11.3 months on average, the last one a very short 1.1 months, according to data from First Trust. We’re about 15 … Read more

Dropping Coverage of the Homebuilders Industry

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Image Source: ArmchairBuilder.com Valuentum is dropping coverage of the homebuilders industry to allocate resources elsewhere. Structure of the Homebuilders Industry The meltdown in housing late last decade is a prime example of the extreme cyclicality of the homebuilding industry. Housing market health is determined by a number of variables: consumer confidence, employment, household formation, replacement demand (natural disasters), inventory (existing/shadow), interest rates, lending standards, and housing prices themselves. The market is far from homogenous, and stronger builders focus on regions with favorable supply/demand characteristics and pursue lot options instead of land purchases. Still, we don’t like the structure of the group given its boom and bust nature. CalAtlantic (CAA) CalAtlantic has agreed to be acquired by Lennar in a cash and … Read more

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio seems so easy, right? The trailing P/E is just the price per share of the stock divided by the annual net diluted earnings per share the firm generated in its last fiscal (calendar) year. The forward P/E is the price per share of the stock divided by next fiscal (calendar) year’s annual net diluted earnings per share of the firm (or the forward 12-month period). The P/E ratio is probably the most well-known measure to help investors compare how cheap or expensive a firm’s shares are, as stock prices, for lack of a better term, are arbitrary. For example, stocks such as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), which … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more