NFX

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

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Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Bakken Production Is Booming and Continental Resources Is a Winner

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 Key Takeaways: ·        Continental Resources is an oil and gas E&P with the largest shale position in the Bakken. ·        Production and proved reserves have significant room to grow. ·        A supermajor oil company like Exxon or Chevron could be interested in acquiring Continental. ·        We believe shares have 35% upside from current levels. Production of shale oil in the Bakken (1) continues to grow rapidly, and the long-term production fortunes in the region remain as positive as ever. Let’s take a look at Continental Resources (click ticker for report: ), a firm we believe has 35% upside from current levels and one that recently made our list of The 25 Cheapest Stocks on the Market. (1) The Bakken field … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

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Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more…

Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets

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Image Source: Sollven Melindo Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore. By Kris Rosemann We’re not rushing to add any commodity-based exposure at the moment. We have some of course – but we’re not looking to add more to the newsletter portfolios. For starters, the iron ore pricing market appears to be setting itself up for another period of pain, and we’re preaching serious levels of caution for those considering the space as iron-ore prices have already begun to descend from the peak of the puzzling early-2017 … Read more

January 5-9: The Week That Was – Drowning in Crude

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The first full week of 2015 was a wild one! Monday and Tuesday brought some hefty losses to the indices, but the middle of the week helped recover most of the ground, only to give some of it back Friday. When all was said and done, however, the S&P 500 still closed comfortably above 2040, a huge leap from just 5-6 years ago. We’re still enjoying the good times, with economic data still coming in relatively sanguine. Like a frog in water, the markets are just waiting for the next shoe to drop, and the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can to assure investors that the Yellen-put is there to prop up the markets should … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Optimizing Coverage

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We’re shifting our coverage around a bit to better allocate resources to areas that are of interest to you! We’re dropping coverage of the following companies, but we plan to add different companies and finetune our analysis in other areas. Every day, we seek to make our service as valuable as it can be! By Christopher Araos Air Industries Group (AIRI) Air Industries focuses on flight safety, including landing gear, engine throttle quadrants and other components. Air Industries makes structural parts for aerospace and defense customers. It focuses on flight safety, including landing gear, engine mounts, throttle quadrants and other components. The company’s products can be found on Sikorski’s UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter, Lockheed’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and Boeing and … Read more

Black Gold! Crude Oil Prices Leap to ~$50

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Key Takeaways: After being negative throughout much of the collapse in energy resource prices during 2014-2015, Valuentum has been market-neutral on the energy sector since October of last year, and the newsletter portfolios have participated in the bounce in energy shares from January 2016 via the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The Dividend Cushion ratio, which is a forward-looking cash-flow based metric of dividend health, flagged the risk of every dividend cut, without fail, in the Independent Oil & Gas industry in advance of the event: Anadarko (APC), Cenovus (CVE), Cimarex (XEC), Devon Energy (DVN), Noble Energy (NBL), and Range Resources (RRC). We’ll walk through the degree of capital cuts across the Independent Oil & Gas industry, the group’s efforts … Read more