MTGE

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Podcast: The Hazards of Mortgage REITs

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks mortgage REITs and the concept of spread risk that may lead to steep book value declines and weakened dividend health across the industry. ~5 mins. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or select the link here. Kris Rosemann: Hi, I am Kris Rosemann for Valuentum Securities. Today on our podcast President of Investment Research Brian Nelson is going walk us through some of our thoughts on mortgage REITs (REM). Brian could you explain to us why we at Valuentum don’t like mortgage REITs and maybe go through some of the risks individual investors should be concerned with that are not as prevalent as a normal operating … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 17

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AirBoss of America (ABSSF): now CAD 0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.065. Ashford Hospitality Prime (AHP): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. CareTrust REIT (CTRE): now $0.185 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. CECO Environmental (CECE): now $0.075 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.066. Dollar General (DG): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM): now $0.36 per … Read more

Valuentum Strives To Be the Gold Standard in Equity Research

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This article was originally published July 17, 2013. Valuentum’s Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio continue to exceed their respective goals, but the firm’s research on the mortgage REIT industry has put it in a class by itself. In this article, please find a graphic portrayal of its call on the mREIT industry. Maxim, KBW, RBC, Edward Jones, Seeking Alpha, Wunderlich, Citi, Evercore, and JP Morgan were all behind the curve. Will still more research shops come around? 1)    September 13, 2012. 2)    May 6, 2013. 3)    May 6, 2013. http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/05/06/mortgage-reit-funds-in-focus-jefferies-says-investors-underestimate-mreit-risks/ 4)    May 26, 2013. /20130526_1 5)    May 30, 2013. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11937184/1/mortgage-reit-sell-off-overdone-on-rate-fears-kbw-rbc.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO 6)    June 7, 2013. http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/agnc/currents/2 7)    June 24, 2013. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1515952-american-capital-agency-corp-book-value-resilience-in-the-face-of-rates-back-up 8)    July 8, 2013. http://www.analystratings.net/ratings/Downgrades/7-8-2013/ 9)    July 9, … Read more

Are You Still Trying to Catch Lightning with American Capital Agency?

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Investors familiar with the mortgage REIT space that have spent any time on our website know of our groundbreaking call on the industry. Please have a look here. American Capital Agency (AGNC), one of the most prominent operators in the mortgage REIT space, reported yet another disappointing quarter. It continues to be painful to write how much we don’t like the uncertainties regarding the broader mortgage REIT environment. Some of the more bullish research shops appear to finally be throwing in the towel. Though the yields on some of the mortgage REIT equities appear attractive, the risks of further dividend cuts continue to grow. Shares of American Capital currently yield ~13%, for example. In the third quarter, American Capital Agency … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 18

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Artesian Resources (ARTNA): now $0.2216 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2183. Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT): now $0.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Citizens Financial Services (CZFS): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.405. Elmer Bancorp, Inc. (ELMA): now $0.33 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.32. The First of Long Island (FLIC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Golden Enterprise (GLDC): now $0.03375 … Read more

American Capital Agency Loses $2.37 Per Share in Second Quarter

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As we have encouraged readers since the peak in September 2012, the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has myriad risks, and the marketing pitches indicating that their principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a US government sponsored entity (GSE) should not make investors feel safe. This dynamic has little bearing on the underlying trajectory of fundamentals and a mortgage REIT’s book value, the key valuation driver and the major impetus behind share price movements in the space. During the second quarter (results released Monday), American Capital Agency (AGNC) failed at its principal objective to preserve net asset value, as book value plunged to $25.51 per share from $28.93 per share in the previous sequential quarter (a $3.42 move). … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Included Realty Income and US Bancorp; Dividend Cuts Included a Number of Mortgage REITs

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Below we provide a list of firms that increased or decreased their dividends for the week ending June 21. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here. Dividend Increases for the Week Ending June 21 CVB Financial (CVBF): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.085. Darden Restaurants (DRI): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. First Internet Bancorp (INBK): now $0.06 per share, was $0.04 (post-split). Host Hotels & Resorts (HST): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. John Wiley & Sons (JW.A): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Mortgage REITs Are Still Hurting

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With QE Infinity potentially ending in mid-2014 and American Capital Agency (AGNC) slashing its quarterly dividend today (now $1.05 per share, was $1.25), mortgage REITs are still hurting. Consistent with our thesis on the group, dividend payments at a variety of industry constituents are not sustainable. American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) also cut its dividend today, while Two Harbors (TWO) lowered its quarterly payout a couple weeks after our industry thesis hit the wires. Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency, Armour Residential (ARR) and Western Asset Management (WMC) were all down more than 2% today. With Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke announcing potential tapering in 2013 and a potential end to mortgage-backed security purchases in mid-2014, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved nearly … Read more