LL

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Home Depot Posts Solid Fourth Quarter Results, Hikes Dividend

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The world’s largest home improvement retailer reported solid fourth quarter results Tuesday. Comparable store sales advanced 4.4% in the period, while comp sales for US stores jumped 4.9%. Adjusting for the extra week in the same quarter a year ago, net earnings jumped nearly 20% in the fourth quarter, a very impressive showing. 2013 marked the company’s strongest comparable store sales growth in 14 years thanks in part to solid execution and a recovering housing market. Free cash flow for the year totaled $6.2 billion, about 7.9% of sales and up from $5.7 billion last year. Thanks to the strong cash flow performance, Home Depot increased its quarterly dividend to $0.47 per share ($1.88 per share on an annual basis, representing … Read more

Lumber Liquidators Is Still Pricey Even After Fall

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Traditionally, when a firm makes the list of the ’Top 25 Most Overvalued Firms’ in the stock market, the primary reason is that market participants have built in expectations far greater than what the firm can reasonably achieve. Lumber Liquidators (LL) has been on our ‘Top 25 Most Overvalued Firms’ list for some time, and the recent update to its outlook December 9, which came in below consensus expectations, sent shares tumbling. The specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in North America provided the following for its outlook for 2013 and 2014: Company Outlook for 2013 Based on year-to-date results and current trends, the company now expects to achieve the following for the full year 2013: Net sales in the range of … Read more

Home Depot’s Third-Quarter Performance Better Than Lowe’s

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On Tuesday, Home Depot (HD) reported excellent third-quarter results. Total sales advanced 7.4% from the third quarter of last year as comparable store sales jumped by a similar amount – comparable sales for the US were 8.2%. Operating income jumped an impressive 32.3% from the same period a year ago, while net earnings for the period increased 28.4% on an adjusted basis, to $0.95 per share. The top-line strength and significant operating leverage was on display during the quarter, and Home Depot was quite positive for the remainder of fiscal 2013, too: Based on year-to-date performance and outlook for the remainder of the year, the company raised its fiscal 2013 sales guidance and now expects sales to be up approximately … Read more

Bed Bath & Beyond Rides the Housing Wave

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Wednesday afternoon, home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (click ticker for report: ) posted solid second quarter results thanks to an improving housing market. Revenue increased 8.9% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, slightly above consensus estimates. Earnings-per-share of $1.16 was an improvement of 18% compared to the year-prior and a penny above consensus expectations. Year-to-date, free cash flow sits at $365 million, equal to 6.7% of revenue. Comp Sales Growth Image Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Comparable sales growth accelerated during the second quarter, registering a number that was 3.7% higher than that of the previous year. The two-year stacked comp for the period sits at 7.2%, which we believe is a solid growth rate in a modest retailing environment. Management offers … Read more

Don’t Get Too Floored By Lumber Liquidators’ Performance

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Over the past year, one of the more amazing performers has been hardwood floor supplier Lumber Liquidators (click ticker for report: ). Shares have steadily climbed a whopping 185% over the past year and are up 55% year-to-date. However, we do not believe such robust performance is likely to continue. Fundamentally, little is wrong with the company’s recent performance. In fact, Lumber Liquidators is benefitting from a strong rebound in the US housing market. Flooring is one of the more obvious features of a house, making it an obvious area to improve from almost all aspects of ownership, whether it be selling, buying, or renting. With hardwood floors still in vogue, the firm is capitalizing on this demand, experiencing a … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

The Impact of the US Housing Recovery Cannot Be Underestimated

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Valuentum reveals the far-reaching implications of a strengthening US housing market.

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more