Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Though we don’t think a double-dip recession in the US is around the corner, we outline our views on how the general economy and employment trends impact same-store-sales performance across the consumer spectrum.
Retail sales numbers issued Thursday by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), which tracks 22 retailers, reinforced what we’ve been saying for some time: the US economy continues to grow and the pace of expansion may even be accelerating, even in the face of domestic political uncertainty, concerns about a slowdown in Chinese growth, and a recession in the Eurozone. According to ICSC data, retail sales rose 4.1% for March, with strong growth across all segments. We think the strong March retail sales performance and improving employment trends bode well for the US economy as we head into the second quarter. Though we liked the underlying March performance, we’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates for … Read more
<< Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) Reports January Comparable Store Sales
This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/278772-collective-brands-turnaround-candidate-not-value-trap Collective Brands Looks More Like a Turnaround Than a Value Trap We have initiated coverage of Collective Brands (PSS) at a fair value of $24 per share based on our discounted cash-flow process. The company reported a miserable first quarter, and the stock has languished since, creating an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors, in our opinion. Legendary investor Peter Lynch made quite a bit of money betting on turnarounds, and we think Collective Brands is the quintessential turnaround candidate. We think the stock is unfairly beaten down, providing considerable upside to patient investors. We are adding the firm to our Best Ideas List. Source: Valuentum Securities Inc.Source: Valuentum Securities Inc. (in millions of … Read more
This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/277117-big-5-sporting-goods-looks-extremely-undervalued-but-proceed-with-caution If you read nothing else, consider these 3 points: Big 5 is disproportionately affected by unemployment in its key home states The company continues to grow slowly and conservatively Big 5 finds homes in niche markets that Dick’s (DKS) and The Sports Authority aren’t interested in What Big 5 does Big 5 is a small sporting goods retailer with 396 stores in 12 western states. The vast majority of its shops are concentrated in California and Nevada. They sell shoes, apparel, athletic gear, and accessories. For shoppers in bigger cities, one might find The Sports Authority or Dick’s Sporting Goods, as Big 5’s stores operate on a much smaller scale. The … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Acushnet (GOLF): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. American Financial (AFG): now $2.00 per share special dividend, was $0.56. Barclays (BCS): now GPB 0.04 per share dividend, was GPB 0.02. Best Buy (BBY): now $0.88 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.70. Black Diamond Group (BDIMF): now CAD 0.015 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.013. Blackhawk Bancorp (BHWB): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades. Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
By Brian Nelson, CFA The first full week of 2015 was a wild one! Monday and Tuesday brought some hefty losses to the indices, but the middle of the week helped recover most of the ground, only to give some of it back Friday. When all was said and done, however, the S&P 500 still closed comfortably above 2040, a huge leap from just 5-6 years ago. We’re still enjoying the good times, with economic data still coming in relatively sanguine. Like a frog in water, the markets are just waiting for the next shoe to drop, and the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can to assure investors that the Yellen-put is there to prop up the markets should … Read more