The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.
KBR
Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released
Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more
Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
First Harvey, Now Irma
Image Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA Sees Irma Strengthen to a Category 5 Hurricane. This visible light image of Hurricane Irma was captured by NOAA’s GOES East satellite as it strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 5 at 7:45 a.m. EDT (1145 UTC). NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing valuable satellite imagery to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and revealed that Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 5 around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC). Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project. Hurricane season 2017 has not been kind to insurers. By Brian Nelson, CFA What a disaster-of-a-hurricane-season 2017 is shaping up to be. Our hearts and thoughts go out to … Read more
Chicago Bridge’s Troubles Continue
Image Source: Chicago Bridge We’ve lowered our fair value estimate for Chicago Bridge & Iron. By Kris Rosemann We’ve lowered our fair value estimate to $18 from $34 and widened our margin of safety for Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) after it cut its bottom-line guidance for 2017 and suspended its dividend August 11. Management may not have the best handle on its business at the moment, as evidenced by the number of projects it was forced to take a significant charge on doubling from two to four from the first to the second quarter of 2017. The bottom-line guidance reduction can be used as evidence of how precise and transparent management has been of late. The company expects second … Read more
Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
Honeywell’s Stock Up 170% Since End of 2009; GE a Better Bet?
Has Honeywell’s business value truly increased by 170% in less than seven years, or are shares overheated? We think investors should continue to exercise prudence in today’s stretched market. GE may be a better relative bet than Honeywell. By Brian Nelson, CFA What a wonderful ride it has been these past seven years from the March 2009 panic bottom. The S&P 500 (SPY) has experienced one of its strongest showings in history during this time, and even large caps have posted returns that have turned heads. The share price of Honeywell (HON), for one, has leapt more than 170% since the end of 2009, simply a huge run for a company of its size. The question, however, on everyone’s mind: … Read more
15 Stocks That Have Boatloads of Net Cash Relative to Their Market Cap
They say that value is in the eye of the beholder. This is certainly true, but when it comes to stock valuation, value rests on the balance sheet and cash flow statement. The build-up of net cash on the balance sheet that results from the net performance of cash flow from operations less both capital expenditures and dividend payments is the primary reason how the intrinsic value of a firm increases over time. Think of a company’s balance sheet like your personal savings account. The more money you put into your personal savings relative to your liabilities and what you spend on personal dividends like vacation, for example, the wealthier you are. Similarly, the more cash a company saves on … Read more
Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update
Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more
Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more