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Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Retail Weakness: Blame the Election?

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Image Source: DonkeyHotey By Kris Rosemann The 2016 election cycle has been one characterized by unprecedented amounts of criticism and accusations, of both the personal and political variety, and it may be true that the perceived political environment from the view of the general public has not been in such a state of uncertainty for some time. Let’s not get into the details of who called whom what in last night’s Presidential debate, but some parents were reportedly not allowing their children to watch the debate out of fear that their values or outlook on democracy could be skewed. But could the uncertainty surrounding the election actually be enough to impact consumer activity at retail outlets and restaurants? Some are … Read more

Walmart Forms Alliance with Leading Chinese E-commerce Firm

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Image Source: Bill L By Kris Rosemann As some US corporations are finding the Chinese market an increasingly difficult one in which to operate, “China (May 2016),” Walmart (WMT) is taking moves to strengthen its presence in the world’s second largest economy. On June 20, the retailing behemoth announced that it has entered into a partnership with JD.com (JD), one of China’s largest e-commerce companies, a move that will enhance offerings to consumers throughout China via a combination of JD.com’s e-commerce prowess and Walmart’s traditional retail operations. While Walmart continues to expand internationally, Target (TGT) continues to retreat from non-US markets, even having abandoning efforts in Canada recently. In the deal with JD.com, Walmart has agreed to sell its grocery-focused, … Read more

China

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Image Source: Mike Behnken Our concerns about China are not new, and neither are your concerns. The potential Treasury Secretary-to-be, Carl Icahn, that is one in a world of a Donald Trump presidency, which has become all-the-more likely now that Ted Cruz and John Kasich have stepped aside, recently brought to light the differences between a capitalist society such as that of the US and a communist nation such as that of China (FXI). Unlike the US government which isn’t necessarily anti-business, even if it isn’t pro-business if existing corporate tax rates are any measure, the Chinese government can make things awfully hard on any company doing business within its borders, if it wants to. What Icahn has been referring … Read more

Seeking to De-risk the Newsletter Portfolios

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There’s never a good reason to panic in investing, but the 276-point slide in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) January 4, the worst start to a year since the credit crisis in 2008, reminded us why we hold more than a 30% cash position in both newsletter portfolios at the moment: with a US stock market still near all-time highs, we like having ample capital available to scoop up bargains as stocks inevitably give back some of their gains. The question for us is not whether the broader US stock market will decline from here but whether such a decline will be 10%, 20% or more. After all, the S&P 500 (SPY) has essentially tripled from the March 2009 … Read more

Alibaba Crushes Singles’ Day Records

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In 2009, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) turned a local holiday for singles into a 24-hour online shopping spree through deep discounts and other promotions. Singles’ Day, as it is called, has since gained significant traction in China and is now a bigger online shopping day than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. For 2015 Singles’ Day, Alibaba reported total gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $14.3 billion for the day, an increase of over 53% compared to Singles’ Day in 2014. This handily beat consensus expectations of ~$13 billion in GMV, and vastly outpaced GMV growth of 28% in the third quarter of 2015. Alibaba continues to be at the forefront of the shift of Internet shopping to mobile platforms, … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          American Assets Trust (AAT): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. American Express (AXP): now $0.60 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Colgate-Palmolive (CL): now $0.48 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.47. Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.49. Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Hammond Power Solutions (HMDPF): now CAD 0.125 … Read more

Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths

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Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC. By Brian Nelson, CFA The week of trading ending February 7 was a very strange one. Last Sunday, one could have only expected that given the news related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak, the bad news related to airlines (JETS) and aerospace players–Boeing (BA), in particular–and the speculative frenzy associated with Tesla’s (TSLA) rise, that the … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more