GVA

Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released

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Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

First Harvey, Now Irma

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Image Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA Sees Irma Strengthen to a Category 5 Hurricane. This visible light image of Hurricane Irma was captured by NOAA’s GOES East satellite as it strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 5 at 7:45 a.m. EDT (1145 UTC). NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing valuable satellite imagery to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and revealed that Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 5 around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC). Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project. Hurricane season 2017 has not been kind to insurers.  By Brian Nelson, CFA What a disaster-of-a-hurricane-season 2017 is shaping up to be. Our hearts and thoughts go out to … Read more

Chicago Bridge’s Troubles Continue

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Image Source: Chicago Bridge We’ve lowered our fair value estimate for Chicago Bridge & Iron. By Kris Rosemann We’ve lowered our fair value estimate to $18 from $34 and widened our margin of safety for Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) after it cut its bottom-line guidance for 2017 and suspended its dividend August 11. Management may not have the best handle on its business at the moment, as evidenced by the number of projects it was forced to take a significant charge on doubling from two to four from the first to the second quarter of 2017. The bottom-line guidance reduction can be used as evidence of how precise and transparent management has been of late. The company expects second … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Search Dividend Reports by Company Name: F to J

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Going forward, please use the ‘Symbol’ search box to download stock and dividend reports of companies you are interested in. The ‘Symbol’ search box can be found in our website header. Image shown from above. Use the active search box in the website header above. Learn more about your membership >>  Note: We have now discontinued this list. Please use the ‘Symbol’ search box in the website header for stock and dividend reports. Please read about our Valuentum Dividend Cushion score (ratio) here. Just having access to this valuable metric alone could save your income portfolio thousands of dollars! The past meets the future as we showcase the Valuentum Dividend Cushion scores of Dividend Aristocrats in this article (click here). The dividend reports below … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more