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Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Novartis’ Continuous Dividend Growth and Promising Pipeline

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Image Shown: Novartis’ dividend history, source: Novartis. By Alexander J. Poulos and Brian Nelson, CFA Sometimes the most attractive opportunities manifest themselves in companies that are in the midst of a transition. In the case of entities in the pharmaceutical industry, the transition often occurs during the period of patent-protection loss of a top-selling treatment. Typically, the market will sour on the company’s prospects as revenue is expected to decline in the near term. However, the longer investment time horizon we have at Valuentum allows us to examine whether such opportunities still fit for inclusion in the newsletter portfolios. Said differently, we’re less interested in what the company will do in the next quarter or two than we are in … Read more

Brexit: Secession Bells Are Ringing!

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First Baptist Church in Columbia, S.C., where the first secession convention in the United States opened on Dec. 17, 1860. Source: Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Photo. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Web. 24 Jun. 2016. Global markets are plunging, and the implosion may still be in the early innings. Market valuations remain stretched among stagnant global economic growth, and “Brexit” may be the catalyst for a correction. In the paraphrased words of the well-known The Day of the Jackal author, Frederick Forsyth: the peasants have spoken. On June 23, the UK (EWU) held a referendum, in which anyone of voting age could take part, to decide whether the country should leave the European Union. The turnout was incredible at nearly 72%, and … Read more

Big Pharma 1Q Earnings Roundup, Part I

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Image Source: Rodrigo Companies mentioned: AZN, ABT, BIIB, LLY, GSK, VRTX, ZTS AstraZeneca (AZN) Treading Water in 2016 AstraZeneca reported total revenue growth of 1% in the first quarter of 2016 on a year-over-year basis, but this growth rate climbs to 5% when not including the impact of foreign exchange headwinds. Core operating results, which excludes the impact of amortization, impairments, restructuring and other non-operating costs, did not hold up well compared to the first quarter of 2015. Core operating profit and core earnings per share fell 8% and 7%, respectively, on a constant currency basis from the year-ago period. Core R&D spending grew 15% in the quarter as a result of acquisitions and continued focus on the firm’s pipeline, which … Read more

Around the Horn in Biotech/Pharma: 3Q Earnings Review

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The biotech (IBB) and pharma (XLV) industries have been two of the strongest-performing segments of the market since the March 2009 panic bottom during the Financial Crisis, but the broader healthcare arena has been under siege as of late. New discoveries underscored by the development of a cure for hepatitis C with Gilead’s (GILD) Solvadi/Harvoni and a huge step forward in cystic fibrosis treatment with Vertex’s (VRTX) Orkambi have helped fuel the exuberance, but established pharma entities have also caught a bid as they successfully worked through the “patent cliff,” capturing the wave of dividend growth investors and acquiring budding new pipelines from smaller rivals along the way. The past few months haven’t been kind to biotech investors, however. What … Read more

Guide to Second Quarter Earnings; Big Pharma Experiencing Earnings Momentum

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Abbott (ABT) Abbott is one of our favorites in Big Pharma. We know many of you hold the stock in your own portfolios, and frankly, the company is one of the best operators in its industry. Abbott’s second-quarter performance revealed continued strength in its global diagnostics and branded generics businesses. Foreign currency exchange headwinds have posed problems for almost every multi-national in our coverage, but on an operational basis, second-quarter worldwide sales leapt nearly 10%. Abbott kept its full-year 2015 adjusted EPS guidance range from continuing operations unchanged at $2.10-$2.20, a rarity across a pharma universe that’s experiencing fantastic earnings momentum as of late. Keys to the Quarter: We were very pleased with the traction witnessed in Abbott’s pediatric nutrition … Read more

Three Huge Red Flags for the Airlines, Hotels

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The airline industry is a good barometer of global economic activity as it not only gauges leisure travel but also business activity. We picked up three important red flags recently that may weigh on shares of the airline group (and by extension the hotel space). For those that don’t know us, we’re not at all fans of the investment prospects of the airline industry, but nonetheless, we pay very close attention to airlines for unique economic insights. Read about our recent call on cyclicals here, in case you missed it. 1. Ebola. According to CNN, the first case of Ebola has been diagnosed in the US. Just like the SARS and West Nile virus before it, the news will likely … Read more

Big Pharma Round Up

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Though much has been made about the patent cliff—shorthand for the expiration of the patents of a large number of drugs over a short period of time—we continue to believe that pipelines across much of the pharmaceutical space are flush with new drugs and therapies. Readers may have an individual favorite or two (or three) within the space (and there’s nothing wrong with that), but we think one of the best ways for investors to play the strong pipelines across the healthcare sector—and ongoing consolidation—is through the Health Care Select SPDR ETF (XLV), a holding in the Best Ideas portfolio. The ETF boasts Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and AbbVie (ABBV) as its top … Read more

Big News in Big Pharma

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Pfizer Held Talks to Acquire AstraZeneca “Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the world’s biggest drugmaker, held informal, now-discontinued talks with AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) about buying the London-based maker of asthma and heart drugs, said two people familiar with the matter… …The companies aren’t currently negotiating, said the people, who asked not to be identified. One said the talks happened several months ago and there are no plans to resume. The discussions were first reported yesterday by London’s Sunday Times, whose unnamed bank and industry sources said New York-based Pfizer made a tentative approach about a takeover valuing AstraZeneca at more than 60 billion pounds ($101 billion).” (Source: Bloomberg) To continue reading >> Valeant and Activist Investor Bill Ackman Pursue Allergan “Canada’s Valeant … Read more

ASCO Reveals That Big Pharma Is Alive

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This weekend, the annual American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) kicked off in Chicago. The theme this year? Immunotherapy. The conference is traditionally littered with news from biotech companies revealing results from clinical studies, but this year’s event also included some news from big phama companies that haven’t been bursting with pipeline breakthroughs in years. Let’s take a look at some of the news out of the event. Firms Highlighted: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline, Amgen, Galena Biopharma, BioMarin, Celgene. Bristol-Myers Squibb Source: BMY ASOC 2013 Presentation Bristol-Myers Squibb (click ticker for report: ) isn’t exactly what we’d call an under-appreciated company. Over the past year, shares are up 43%. However, this year’s ASCO only further ignited the fire. The company … Read more