GILD

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Gilead Raises Revenue and Non-GAAP Diluted EPS Guidance

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Image Source: Gilead  By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 6, Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported better than expected third quarter results, with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share beating the consensus forecast. Total third quarter product sales advanced 7% on a year-over-year basis thanks to higher sales in HIV (+9%), Veklury (+9%), as well as in Oncology (+6%) and Liver Disease (+4%). Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $2.02 in the third quarter, down from $2.29 per share in the third quarter of last year due to higher acquired in-process research and development expense as well as higher tax expense. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Gilead’s third quarter results are the strongest of the … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

Gilead Raises Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings Outlook for 2024

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Image Source: Gilead By Brian Nelson, CFA Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported better than expected second quarter results on August 8. Total second quarter revenue increased 5% thanks to higher sales across its HIV, Liver Disease and Oncology portfolio, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $2.01 in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $1.34 in the same quarter of 2023. Total product sales increased 6%, excluding its COVID-19-related treatment Veklury. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Gilead has had another strong quarter with 6% year-over-year growth in our base business. This was driven by sales of our therapies for HIV, Oncology and Liver Disease, including 8% growth for Biktarvy. One of the key highlights … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Gilead’s 4%+ Dividend Yield Covered Nicely with Free Cash Flow

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Image: Gilead’s coverage of its dividend with free cash flow remains rock-solid. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported mixed fourth-quarter results with revenue coming in better than expected, despite a decline, and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in a bit light relative to expectations. Our fair value estimate of Gilead Sciences stands at $96 per share, well above where they are currently trading, and Gilead’s 4%+ dividend yield is backed by a healthy Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.9. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% on a year-over-year basis as COVID-19 related sales faded as the world has largely moved past the global pandemic. The weakness in that area, however, was partially offset by higher oncology … Read more

Pfizer 6% Dividend Yield Speaks of Considerable Risk, Free Cash Flow Coming Up Short

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Image: Pfizer’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA  Pfizer’s (PFE) revenue has faced pressure of late from expected declines in COVID-related sales from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, as the pharma giant navigates a post-COVID-19 world. However, excluding weakness from COVID-19 related revenue, the company’s underlying revenue grew 7% during 2023. Pfizer is working to build a strong oncology portfolio as it strives to realize billions in annualized cost savings to get to the other side of its troubles.   Image: Pfizer’s 2024 financial guidance. For the full-year 2024, Pfizer is targeting revenue in the range of $58.5-$61.5 billion (was $58.5 billion in 2023) and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of … Read more