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Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs

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Image Source: Michael Vadon President Trump is making true on his promises to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern. Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA If rising interest rates aren’t enough to give the market heartburn, President Trump announced March 1 that he will impose tariffs on the importation of steel and aluminum to the tune of 25% and 10%, respectively, citing national security concerns. Steel and aluminum stocks rallied hard on the news, but it left many of its industrial brethren under … Read more

Subscribe: The Nelson Exclusive Is Simply One of a Kind

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“I think the Nelson Exclusive publication is worth far more than what we charge for it, and we’re making it even better.” Hi folks, I have to admit that I was quite worried about launching the Nelson Exclusive May 2016. I didn’t know what to expect, and as we’ve progressed with new ideas each and every month, I’ve been working hard to incorporate feedback. For starters, we’re going to be moving to tracking the income characteristics of the income ideas on a go-forward basis as a measure of their success. Many members have voiced this long-term income-oriented preference, and frankly we think it makes a lot of sense. Not one income idea in the Exclusive has cut its dividend! But … Read more

Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back

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Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 – The Missile Defense Agency’s Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine — All of this over just a … Read more

Admit It: You Know Nothing About the Dividend

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how the concept of a dividend is completely miscontrued due to societal and cultural reasons, but he also explains why he likes dividends. Warning: He’s going to bust out Monopoly pieces. You don’t want to miss this! Running time: ~15 minutes.

I Love Dividends But the Dividend Discount Model is DEAD!

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson gives a plethora of reasons why the dividend discount model is dead and expresses his worries about how it continues to be used academically and professionally. Also included is a discussion about why the weighted average cost of capital, or the WACC, is used in the enterprise free cash flow valuation process, or the free cash flow to the firm process. Running time: ~13 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Video: North Korea, Indexing, and ETFs

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the non-zero probability of nuclear war, lofty equity market valuations, the impact of ultra-low interest rates, the Bitcoin phenomenon, the importance of paying attention to financial adviser fees, as well as the pitfalls when it comes to assigning styles to ETFs. Running time: ~11 minutes. Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Banks – Regional and Asset Management: AB, AINV, AMP, ARCC, BCH, BEN, BGCP, BKU, BLK, BMO, BNS, CM, FSIC, ISBC, KKR, LAZ, LM, MAIN, MTB, NABZY, NYB, OCN, PBCT, PFG, PSEC, RY, SBNY, SBSI, STT, TCAP, TD, VLY, WBK  Banks & Money Centers: AXP, BAC, BBT, BK, C, DFS, FITB, GS, HBC, JPM, KEY, MS, NTRS, PNC, … Read more

North Korea and the Bomb

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Tensions between the United States and North Korea have heightened, and we may look to August 2017 as the dawn of yet another Cold War. The news has little impact on our thesis, however. Stocks generally remain overvalued, and some of them considerably. Let’s cover a few stocks in the news and reiterate our generally positive stance on defense contractors, two of our favorites recently highlighted in the Nelson Exclusive publication. Learn more about the Nelson Exclusive here. “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” Trump said, arms crossed, from his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Tuesday. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” – CNN, … Read more

Podcast: Defense Spending and the Explosion of Cyber Crime

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The Valuentum analyst team discusses trends in US and global defense spending and the explosion of Internet crime that is fueling investment in cyber security both in the public and private sectors. ~7 mins. This podcast was originally published November 3, 2016. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or click the link here. Software – Security: CHKP, FEYE, FTNT, IMPV, PANW, PFPT, SYMC, VRSN Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson for Valuentum Securities, and today I have joining me on our podcast Mr. Kris Rosemann and Mr. Chris Araos. Today, we are going to talk about the landscape for defense spending … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more