FAST

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Fastenal’s Second Quarter Results a Positive Read Through for the Broader Economy

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 14, Fastenal (FAST) reported better than expected second quarter results with revenue and GAAP earnings coming in ahead of the consensus forecasts. The wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies recorded net sales growth of 8.6% in the quarter, with gross profit expanding 9.2% and operating income jumping 12.7%. Income before income taxes advanced 13%, while net income and diluted net income per share increased 12.8% and 12.7%, respectively. The strength in sales in the quarter was “due to a growth in the number of customer sites spending $10k or more per month with Fastenal and, to a lesser degree, growth in average monthly sales per customer site across all customer … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF): now $0.9877 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.8830. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): now $0.545 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.535. Industrial Logistics Properties (ILPT): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.01. Levi Strauss (LEVI): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. Marsh & McLennan (MMC): now $0.90 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.81. PB Financial (PBNC): now $0.59 per … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          ADF Group (DRX:CA): now CAD 0.02 per share semi-annual dividend, was CAD 0.01. Aerovate Therapeutics (AVTE): now $2.40 per share special dividend. Agree Realty (ADC): now $0.256 per share monthly dividend, was $0.253. Alcon (ALC): now CHF 0.28 per share dividend. Aon (AON): now $0.745 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.675. Bank of America Corporation 4.750% DP PFD SS (BAC.PR.S): now $0.2970 per share … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 17

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Abbvie (ABBV): now $1.64 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.55. Algoma Central (ALC:CA): now CAD 0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.19. Alpine Banks of Colorado (ALPIB): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Autoscope Technologies (AATC): now $1.05 per share special dividend, was $0.15. BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (HOM.U:CA): now CAD 0.0468 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0467. CI … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more