The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
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Fed Chair Powell’s Debut, Retail Earnings Roundup, and the Dividend Cushion!
The 10-year Treasury yield continues to outpace that of the average dividend yield of an S&P 500 stock, and portfolio managers continue to evaluate long-term allocations as a result. We evaluate the initial testimony from new Fed chairman Jay Powell, report on developments in the crude oil markets, and survey the retail landscape to offer incremental insight into the health of the consumer. The Dividend Cushion ratio continues to prove its worth. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The month of February was a wild ride for investors, and it wasn’t pleasant. The stock market experienced incredible swings, both to the upside and to the downside, like no other time in recent memory as the very real risk of … Read more
Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
Discovery-Scripps Joining Forces to Take on the Changing Digital Media Landscape
Image Source: Lwp Kommunikáció Discovery Communications has agreed to acquire Scripps Networks, but will it be enough for the two to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving–and consolidating–media landscape? By Kris Rosemann The cable TV industry is not what it was only a few short years ago, and Discovery Communications (DISCA) finally getting its hands on the assets of Scripps Networks (SNI) is only further evidence of this. Both companies have had a relative amount of success in delivering compelling programming to targeted audiences in years past via traditional pay-TV channels, but the days of tuning in to Shark Week on The Discovery Channel through your local cable provider are fading fast. The cord-cutting revolution is one that has been well-covered … Read more
Labor and the Economic Cycle
As we arguably near the “peak” in the business cycle, labor is starting to demand more, a dynamic that we believe is emblematic of the period of aging economic expansion. Let’s have a look at what’s happening in the fight for higher wages. By Brian Nelson, CFA Each business cycle is different in both magnitude and duration, but there are some common qualities that define where an economy might be within the cycle. First, it has been more than 8 years since the March 2009 stock-market panic bottom, a period that witnessed firms such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG (AIG) flounder. The unemployment rate peaked at 10% during that difficult time. Since then, the US economy has emerged … Read more
Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
April Deals May Flower Future Growth
Image Source: Iqbal Osman By Kris Rosemann Thursday, April 28, was marked by a surge of M&A activity, as major corporations continue to search for growth as global economic concerns remain and the US economy shows signs of slowing. The world’s largest economy, which is accustomed to slow starts to the year, saw seasonally-adjusted GDP grow at a 0.5% rate in the first quarter of 2016, the slowest rate for the first quarter since 2014. Though a rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter has followed in nearly every year since the Great Recession, a variety of global pressures has caused US GDP growth to slow on a quarter-over-quarter basis since the second quarter of 2015 when it nearly … Read more
Video: Are Economic Moats Priced Into Stock Prices? — You Bet They Are
President of Equity Research Brian Nelson debunks the myth that the economic moat is not included in stock prices. Length: ~8 minutes. Tickerized for firms in the Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT), as of October 14, 2015. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I wanted to talk about an important concept and answer an important question. Is Warren Buffet’s economic moat priced into stock prices? Before I answer that question, I think we need to define a couple things. Return on invested capital is a measure of a business’ performance. It’s calculated as earnings before interest divided by net new investment, which is a measure of return on new invested capital. So what is the return the … Read more
Disney’s Disappointment
On August 4, media giant and consumer spending bellwether Walt Disney (DIS) put up decent fiscal third-quarter results, but concerns about the future of pay-TV left investors a bit cautious on its outlook. We don’t expect a material change to our $94 per share fair value estimate of the company (we have been far below the market price of $120+), and we point to most of the sell off as profit-taking following a very strong multi-year share-price run. During the fiscal third-quarter (ended June 27, 2015), revenue leapt to $13.1 billion from $12.5 billion in the year-ago period (a 5% increase), while diluted earnings per share advanced at a nice 13% clip, to $1.45 per share. On display yet again … Read more
Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update
Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more