DIS

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

by

Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Your Role as a Choice Architect

by

“As we’ve shown time and time again, you don’t need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen.” — Dear members: — Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge (1), co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. — A good example of a choice architect might be a cafeteria worker that has to decide how to organize the food in a buffet line … Read more

Disney Expects Strong Earnings Growth in Fiscal 2025

by

Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA Disney (DIS) recently reported better than expected second quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share beating the consensus forecast. Revenue increased 7% to $23.6 billion, while income before income taxes increased $2.4 billion, to $3.1 billion. Total segment operating income increased 15%, to $4.4 billion in the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share increased 20%, to $1.45 from $1.21 in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Management had the following to say about the results: Our outstanding performance this quarter—with adjusted EPS up 20% from the prior year driven by our Entertainment and Experiences businesses—underscores our continued success building for growth and executing across our strategic priorities. Following an … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

by

Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Disney Sets Positive Long-Term Guidance

by

Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA Disney (DIS) reported better than expected fiscal fourth quarter results on November 15. Revenue increased 6% in the fiscal fourth quarter, while the company achieved strong 23% expansion in total segment operating income. Diluted earnings per share excluding certain items expanded to $1.14 in the quarter, up 39% from the same period a year ago. Cash flow from operations advanced to $5.5 billion, up 15% year-over-year, while free cash flow came in at $4 billion in the quarter, up 18% year-over-year. Management had the following to say about the quarter and full fiscal year results: This was a pivotal and successful year for The Walt Disney Company, and thanks to the significant progress … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

by

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Disney Achieves Profitability Across Combined Streaming Businesses

by

Image: Disney’s shares are under pressure despite marked improvement in earnings. By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 7, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported better than expected fiscal third quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Revenue advanced to $23.2 billion from $22.3 billion in the same quarter last year, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $1.39 from $1.03 in the prior-year quarter. Revenue increased 4% in its Entertainment division, 5% in its Sports segment and 2% in its Experiences division. Segment operating income surged in its Entertainment division, while segment operating income faced pressure at Sports and Experiences. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Our performance in … Read more

Netflix Still Has a Long Runway of Growth Ahead of It

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 18, Netflix (NFLX) reported strong second quarter results that showed revenue on a foreign exchange neutral basis increasing 22% thanks to a 16% increase in average paid memberships and a 5% increase in average revenue per member [ARM] on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Global revenue was modestly higher than the company’s beginning-of-quarter guidance thanks to strength in global streaming paid net additions. Netflix’s operating income surged in the quarter, up 42% from the same period a year ago, as its operating margin improved 5 percentage points to 27.2%, both “slightly above (its) guidance forecast due to higher-than-expected revenue.” Second quarter earnings per share came in at $4.88, up 48% on a year-over-year basis, … Read more