DG

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Your Role as a Choice Architect

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“As we’ve shown time and time again, you don’t need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen.” — Dear members: — Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge (1), co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. — A good example of a choice architect might be a cafeteria worker that has to decide how to organize the food in a buffet line … Read more

Dollar General Raises Guidance Despite Tariff Uncertainty

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Image: Dollar General’s shares have been under pressure the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 3, Dollar General (DG) reported better than expected first quarter results, with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Net sales advanced 5.3%, to $10.4 billion, while same-store sales growth came in at 2.4%, reflecting a 2.7% increase in average transaction and a 0.3% decline in customer traffic. Operating profit increased 5.5%, while diluted earnings per share increased 7.9%, to $1.78. Cash flow from operations increased 27.6%, to $847.2 million. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We are pleased with our start to the year, including strong same-store sales and EPS results. Our efforts to … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Dollar General’s Long-term Framework Looks Achievable

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 13, Dollar General (DG) reported mixed fourth quarter fiscal 2024 results with revenue outpacing the consensus forecast, but GAAP earnings per share coming up a bit light. Fourth quarter net sales advanced 4.5%, while same store sales increased 1.2% in the quarter, the latter better than the consensus estimate of 0.9%. Fourth quarter operating profit dropped 49.2% and fourth quarter diluted earnings per share dropped 52.5%, which included charges associated with its store portfolio review. Despite the mixed report, management was pleased with the results: We were pleased with the underlying performance of the business in the fourth quarter, including improved execution and solid top-line results. As we reflect on our … Read more

Dollar General Hit By Hurricane-Related Expenses

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA On December 5, Dollar General (DG) reported mixed third quarter results with revenue exceeding the consensus forecast, but GAAP earnings per share coming up short relative to expectations. Net sales increased 5% in the quarter thanks to positive sales contributions of new stores and same-store sales expansion of 1.3%, which reflected increases of 1.1% in average transaction amount and 0.3% in customer traffic. In the quarter, operating profit fell more than 25% and diluted earnings per share fell nearly 30%, however, as the company suffered from hurricane-related expenses. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We are pleased with our team’s execution in the third quarter, particularly in light of multiple … Read more

Dollar General’s Business Model Challenged By Walmart’s Strength

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Image: Dollar General’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past couple years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Dollar General (DG) recently reported second-quarter results that left a lot to be desired. Revenue of $10.2 billion missed estimates by $170 million, while GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.70, missing the consensus forecast by $0.09. Same-store sales increased 0.5%, while operating profit fell 20.6% and diluted earnings per share dropped more than 20%. Management was disappointed with the performance: We made important progress on our Back to Basics plan in the second quarter, However, despite advancing several of our operational goals and driving positive traffic growth, we are not satisfied with our financial results, including top line results below our … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more