CPT

Valuentum Members Are Reminded of the mREITs

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“I am the advisor you referenced in the July newsletter who sold AGNC. Your timely article made me re-look at all of the mReits we owned, and we sold off nearly all of them over the following month after your article. I just calculated where we sold (because of your article) compared to where the mReits are today. Your article, which influenced the selling saved our clients over $1.1 million in equity price drops. That translates into $11,000 per year of fee income to the firm. You can bet that we will be re-subscribing when the time comes. Thank you for your hard work, and bringing additional value that was not owed or expected.” — Tim A. (source: Valuentum testimonials), … Read more

American Capital Agency Disappoints Again; Armour Residential Follows

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We’re still getting praises from our call on the mREIT industry that shocked the investment world and literally put our research firm on the map (click here for that). We outlined how other research firms were so wrong in this piece (link), and interestingly, we’re adding BAML today to the list of investment shops that led their advisor communities astray. Frankly, we’re honored to serve you, and we’re proud to have delivered on the correct research perspective. We’re not here to point out the pitfalls of others, but by pointing out this well-documented example, our goal is to continue to build your trust in us as a firm. Let’s take a look at the ongoing troubles the mREIT industry continues … Read more

American Capital Agency Loses $2.37 Per Share in Second Quarter

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As we have encouraged readers since the peak in September 2012, the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has myriad risks, and the marketing pitches indicating that their principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a US government sponsored entity (GSE) should not make investors feel safe. This dynamic has little bearing on the underlying trajectory of fundamentals and a mortgage REIT’s book value, the key valuation driver and the major impetus behind share price movements in the space. During the second quarter (results released Monday), American Capital Agency (AGNC) failed at its principal objective to preserve net asset value, as book value plunged to $25.51 per share from $28.93 per share in the previous sequential quarter (a $3.42 move). … Read more

The Mortgage REIT Business Doesn’t Work…

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Key Takeaways: ·         The good times are over for mortgage REITs. o       Mortgage market dynamics are inherently difficult to predict. o       A flatter yield curve has negatively impacted net interest rate spread income across the entire mortgage REIT universe. We’re already seeing deteriorating gross ROE’s from some of the largest industry constituents. o       The Fed has only caused a marginal tightening in mortgage spreads, and in our view, a marginal widening due to reduced Fed activity (if/when it happens) is perhaps the best-case scenario as it relates to spread income for the group. A continuation of spread tightening is likely the base-case scenario, which is negative for the group. o       Net interest rate spread income and gross ROE’s will only be materially enhanced … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.50. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.65 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.63. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $1.03 per share variable quarterly dividend, was $1.00. AudioCodes (AUDC): now $0.18 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.17. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.185 per share quarterly … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 31

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 31. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Constitution Bancorp (FCCY): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.075. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.375 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.350. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.6175 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5875. AmerisourceBergen (ABC): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Anthem (ANTM): now $0.95 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.80. Apartment Investment (AIV): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. Apollo Global … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AFLAC (AFL): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.68 per share variable quarterly dividend and $0.34 per share special dividend, was $0.65. Atkore International (ATKR): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend. AvalonBay Communities (AVB): now $1.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.65. Baker Hughes (BKR): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Bank of Botetourt … Read more