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United Tech Ups Guidance; Outlook Bodes Well For Aerospace Supply Chain

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Image Source: hj_west We think activist pressure on United Technologies is unwarranted, and we were highly encouraged by the company’s execution during the first quarter of 2018. Performance at Pratt & Whitney and UTC Aerospace Systems bodes well for the aerospace supply chain. By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s a lot to like about United Technologies (UTX). The company is one of our favorite industrial companies, and we’re probably most fond of its aerospace exposure. We’re against a break-up of the company as we continue to believe United Technologies is on the verge of fantastic top and bottom-line expansion in coming years thanks in part to the burgeoning backlog of unfulfilled deliveries at the airframe makers, Boeing (BA) and Airbus (EADSY). … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

North Korea and the Bomb

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Tensions between the United States and North Korea have heightened, and we may look to August 2017 as the dawn of yet another Cold War. The news has little impact on our thesis, however. Stocks generally remain overvalued, and some of them considerably. Let’s cover a few stocks in the news and reiterate our generally positive stance on defense contractors, two of our favorites recently highlighted in the Nelson Exclusive publication. Learn more about the Nelson Exclusive here. “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” Trump said, arms crossed, from his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Tuesday. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” – CNN, … Read more

Podcast: Defense Spending and the Explosion of Cyber Crime

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The Valuentum analyst team discusses trends in US and global defense spending and the explosion of Internet crime that is fueling investment in cyber security both in the public and private sectors. ~7 mins. This podcast was originally published November 3, 2016. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or click the link here. Software – Security: CHKP, FEYE, FTNT, IMPV, PANW, PFPT, SYMC, VRSN Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson for Valuentum Securities, and today I have joining me on our podcast Mr. Kris Rosemann and Mr. Chris Araos. Today, we are going to talk about the landscape for defense spending … Read more

Not Worried About Priceline, Boeing; Yes Worried About Fickle Retail

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Priceline and Boeing have been here before. Fickle retail continues to succumb to the Amazon effect. By Brian Nelson, CFA The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) closed just shy of the 21,000 mark on May 11, while the S&P 500 (SPY) ended the session at ~2,395. We continue to ride the wave in the equity markets higher, even as we exercise caution almost across the board. First-quarter earnings season has actually been quite good, however, with the “blended earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies north of 10% (it was 13.5% with more than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting). FactSet noted in its May 5 report that this pace of growth is the highest since … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

First Quarter 2017 Comes To A Close

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“Be sure to continue to study the difference between price and value—just because a stock’s price has advanced doesn’t make it more expensive if the value of its enterprise has increased at a faster rate. If you understand this concept, you may be smarter than 99.9% of the investing population.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA The first quarter of 2017 came and went. Including dividends, the S&P 500 (SPY) roared nearly 6% higher during the period thanks to solid gains from the land of technology, an area that we have liked for the longest time. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) advanced more than 10% during the period, and key technology holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter … Read more

Boeing’s Lift Off, Lockheed’s Caution, and United Tech’s Outlook

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Image Source: Rob Buhlman Just how healthy is the commercial aerospace market? Very — if the size of Boeing’s backlog is any indication. Let’s have a look. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2016, we wrote an extensive update on the commercial aerospace market, “Boeing Declares Victory But Farnborough Disappoints,” and we encourage those that are digging into this follow-up note to read that piece first before proceeding. In this note, dated Wednesday, January 25, we’d like to build on that piece and update investors on a few insights we’ve gathered within the aerospace market. First, what was once a key company to assess commercial aerospace demand is no longer. As of November 1, Alcoa (AA) has been severed into … Read more