APC

Exxon Misses, ConocoPhillips Raises Production, and Shell Writes Down North American Shale Assets

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As Valuentum members are aware, we think the oil majors each have their own respective strengths and weaknesses. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has consistently earned the best economic returns (ROCE) among peers, but its stock price is rich, trading at the high end of our fair value estimate range (at the time of this writing). ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to raise its production forecasts and is the second-best value-creator (ROCE) in the group. However, Chevron (CVX) has the strongest balance sheet among peers (it has the only net cash position), and by extension, is better-positioned to raise its dividend during the troughs of future energy-price cycles. Meanwhile, BP (BP) continues to deal with the aftermath of its well-publicized 2010 oil spill in … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 9

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Allegion (ALLE): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Allergan (AGN): now $0.72 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.70. Allstate (ALL): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): now $0.2066 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2052. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): now $0.335 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.

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What is Valuentum Securities? Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. How do I subscribe to Valuentum’s investment research services? 1)    Click the following link: signup-page. 2)    Select your membership plan. 3)    Enter your contact details. 4)    Click ‘Sign Up.’ 5)    Complete your purchase. 6)   Your payment profile may be recurring, so please check … Read more

Efficacy of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

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A version of this article was originally published September 2019. The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Valuentum Analysts  Key Takeaways: The Dividend Cushion ratio is a helpful tool to use to cushion your dividend growth or income portfolio against potential dividend cuts. The ratio also helps to assess the growth potential of a company’s dividend, above and beyond current expectations of payout … Read more

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

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Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more…

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 12

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 12. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AGL Resources, Inc. (GAS): now $0.53 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.51. Allstate (ALL): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. American International Group (AIG): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Aubum National Bancorporation (AUBN): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Canadian General Investments, Limited (CGRIF): now C$0.16 per … Read more

Which Sectors Are Leading the Market Higher? And Why Is This Important?

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Missed the ’13 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market’? Click here. Demand academic evidence regarding the efficacy of the Valuentum process? Click here. Tobias J. Moskowitz and Mark Grinblatt documented the “strong and prevalent momentum effect in industry components of stock returns which accounts for much of the individual stock momentum anomaly” in their scholarly article published in the Journal of Finance, ‘Do Industries Explain Momentum’ (download here; stable link here; updated by Fraulo and Nguyen here). Moskowitz and Grinblatt also concluded that “industry momentum investment strategies, which buy stocks from past winning industries and sell stocks from past losing industries, appear highly profitable.” Such findings are consistent with the ‘Case for the Valuentum Style of Investing,’ and … Read more

Black Gold! Crude Oil Prices Leap to ~$50

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Key Takeaways: After being negative throughout much of the collapse in energy resource prices during 2014-2015, Valuentum has been market-neutral on the energy sector since October of last year, and the newsletter portfolios have participated in the bounce in energy shares from January 2016 via the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE). The Dividend Cushion ratio, which is a forward-looking cash-flow based metric of dividend health, flagged the risk of every dividend cut, without fail, in the Independent Oil & Gas industry in advance of the event: Anadarko (APC), Cenovus (CVE), Cimarex (XEC), Devon Energy (DVN), Noble Energy (NBL), and Range Resources (RRC). We’ll walk through the degree of capital cuts across the Independent Oil & Gas industry, the group’s efforts … Read more