YUM

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

People Love Their Starbucks

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Image: Starbucks remains a strong free cash flow generator. By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 2, Starbucks (SBUX) reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results that showed revenue advancing 11.4% and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecast. People aren’t balking at buying expensive coffee, and quite simply, people love their Starbucks brew, whatever it may be. The company’s fourth-quarter comparable store sales advanced 8% on a global basis (average ticket prices accounted for 4 percentage points of the increase), and Starbucks has a long runway for future store expansion, having opened 816 net stores in the quarter. Here’s what CEO Laxman Narasimhan had to say about the quarter: We finished our fourth quarter and full fiscal year … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Source (SRCE): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.10. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Allergan (AGN): now $0.74 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.72. Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB): now $0.23 per share quarterly … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ALPS ETF Trust – ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG): now $0.3844 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3797. Ameris Bancorp (ABCB): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Dave & Buster’s (PLAY): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. DTF Tax-Free Income (DTF): now $0.04 per share monthly dividend, was $0.035. ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Acerinox, S.A. (ANIOY): now $0.1219 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1159. Acuity Brands (AYI): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. ADT (ADT): now $0.055 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.035. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.75. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.705 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6775. American Express (AXP): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M (MMM): now $1.49 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.48. Algoma Steel Group (ASTL): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend. Amdocs (DOX): now $0.395 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.360. Ameren (AEE): now $0.59 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.55. Ametek (AME): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Ares Management (ARES): now $0.61 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.47. AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): now $1.97 … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more