WMT

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

ICYMI: Things Have Changed Fast; Inflation and the Fed Have Damaged the Economy

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This article was originally published October 5.   Image Source: EpicTop10.com By Brian Nelson, CFA The year 2022 started out with the popping of the bubble in the alternative investments arena–namely in the cryptocurrency (BITO), non-fungible token (NFT), and the collectibles markets–coupled with worries about the Fed raising interest rates to combat inflation and weakness in the most speculative equity areas, namely disruptive innovation stocks (ARKK). It’s important to note that the consumer price index (CPI) started to edge meaningfully higher in early 2021 (not this year). Though the writing was on the wall with respect to impending Fed tightening, as investors, we have to assess what the Fed will do and the impact on the markets, not necessarily what … Read more

Nike’s Fundamental Backdrop Speaks of Serious Impending Global Recession

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Image Source: Raul Gonzalez By Brian Nelson, CFA In a rapidly declining market as we have been witnessing the past many months, it becomes a relative “game.” Taking on outsize risk to drive positive returns is a quick way to the poor house. There are too many things working against the market for it to pull sustainably higher before year’s end, and we think investors are better off playing defense than attacking the bear. Things are bad out there, and they are likely going to get worse, “Things Are Bad Out There.” It is perfectly reasonable and understandable to have been bullish during the first half of this year, as we were, to at least give the market some breathing … Read more

Fed Raises 75 Basis Points; Food Price Inflation Continues to Wreak Havoc on Consumer Budgets

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Image Source: Federal Reserve The Fed upped its key benchmark rate to the range of 3%-3.25% on September 21, but it may not be enough to stem the rise in inflation. We think the market has further room to fall. By Brian Nelson, CFA We think the Fed is looking to crush the economy and break the will of businesses to raise prices. Unfortunately, there is only so much that hiking the federal funds rate can do, and much of the inflation that is hurting the consumer is coming in the form of food prices, and this doesn’t look like it will abate anytime soon. I had warned about a coming market “flush” in a late August video, in part … Read more

Nelson Nailed Food Price Inflation Risks; Markets Heading Lower

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Image Source: Liz West “Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report.” By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone: I put together a video several weeks ago on August 27, explaining how consumers were tapped out due to inflationary squeezes, particularly at the grocery store, as a big reason for being incrementally more bearish on the equity markets. The August CPI report, released September 13, showed that consumer prices advanced 8.3% on a year-over-year basis and are still accelerating, increasing 0.1 percent from July, where the pace was unchanged. Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report. We don’t think the market was … Read more

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy

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Video: Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he’s turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more! –——— Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact … Read more

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to “Raise” Incremental Cash

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Video: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by “tapped out” consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market “flush,” and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to “raise” incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes. –——— Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Home Depot Beats Estimates, Maintains Guidance

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Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Home Depot Inc is a stellar free cash flow generator in almost any operating environment. Historically, the home improvement retailer’s free cash flows have fully covered its dividend obligations, and we forecast that will continue to be the case going forward. However, we caution that its sizable share repurchases are being funded in part by its balance sheet. The firm has a large net debt load on the books. Image Source: Home Depot Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On August 16, Home Depot Inc (HD) reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended July 31, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The home improvement … Read more