VRTX

Moderna’s Personalized Cancer Vaccine (PCV) Could Be a Game-Changer When Combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA

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Image: Moderna’s therapeutics pipeline continues to advance, and the company recently received positive news regarding its personalized cancer vaccine (PCV), ID # mRNA-4157, when combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA. Image Source: Moderna By Brian Nelson, CFA Modern medicine continues to advance. Our favorite idea in biotech remains Vertex Pharma (VRTX), which has a fantastic and commercialized cystic fibrosis portfolio and exposure to CRISPR technology, but the latest data to turn our heads came from Moderna’s (MRNA) personalized cancer vaccine (PCV). Investors perhaps are most familiar with Moderna in part because it has produced one of four authorized COVID-19 vaccines available for use in the US: Pfizer (PFE)-BioNTech’s (BNTX), Novavax’s (NVAX), Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) and Moderna’s. The PFE-BNTX and MRNA vaccines … Read more

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership

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In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance–despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening! Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” … Read more

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print

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Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

In the News: META, AAPL, AMZN, RSG, DLR, VRTX, XOM, CVX

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA Readers should expect a substantial reduction in our fair value estimate of Meta Platforms (META). The company’s spending is out of control, and the impact on our expectations of free cash flow will be materially punitive. As we have reiterated time and time again in our work, stock prices and returns are based in part on future expectations of free cash flow, and our expectations for Meta’s have changed. A look at how fast things fell apart at Meta is informative.  The company reported Q4’21 results in February 2022, and it’s only been a few months for the company to experience the considerable deterioration — for free cash flow to fall from $12.6 … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Johnson & Johnson Reports Mixed 3Q Results, Plans to Spin Off Consumer Health Division Mid-to-Late 2023

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Image Source: Johnson & Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 18, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported mixed third-quarter results that showed adjusted operational sales growth of 8.2%, but adjusted earnings per share falling 1.9%. Negative currency impacts posed a stiff headwind to its ‘International’ operations, and we would expect this to be a recurring theme across multi-nationals during third-quarter earnings season. We’re sticking with Johnson & Johnson as one of the top weightings in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. On an adjusted operational basis (i.e. excluding currency headwinds and any acquisitions and divestitures), the company’s business remained resilient in otherwise what can be described as a very uncertain economic backdrop. Its ‘Consumer Health’ division experienced adjusted operational sales … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Outperforming

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Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc have put up stellar performance so far in 2022. By Callum Turcan On October 14, UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) reported third quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The health care giant also increased its full-year guidance for 2022 (again) during its latest earnings update after previously boosting its full-year guidance during both its first and second quarter earnings reports. We include shares of UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the company is a stellar free cash flow generator backed up by a pristine balance sheet and bright growth outlook. Shares of UNH yield ~1.3% as of this writing. Earnings … Read more

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA  Our work is always forward-looking in nature, consistent with the markets, which drive pricing and valuation on the basis of future expectations. 2022 has no doubt been a difficult year for many an investor across asset classes, not just equities. Perhaps the biggest insight provided by the Valuentum analyst team for this year came in the second edition of the book Value Trap, “Renowned Investor Brian Nelson Publishes Second Edition of Best Indie Book Award Winner Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation,” but such an insight has often been reiterated on our website and through the newsletters, too. To put it bluntly: We became significantly worried about the diversification benefits of the 60/40 stock/bond … Read more