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ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Valuentum Weekly: Yields on New Series I Savings Bonds Have Soared!

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The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever! — —– — Markets  — The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are all indicated up Sunday night (March 13), but that may not mean much when trading kicks off tomorrow. The start to 2022 has been one of the worst stretches during the past decade, but broader … Read more

Our Thoughts on the Widespread Launch of 5G Services

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Image Shown: The evolution of wireless networks and telecommunications technology over the years. Image Source: Intel Corporation – November 2019 State of 5G Presentation  By Callum Turcan The rollout of 5G telecommunication networks is upon us and we want to draw our members’ attention to some of the key companies with meaningful exposure to this space. Many are excited about what opportunities 5G technology could enable. Background On July 23, AT&T Inc (T) announced its 5G network in the US was operational nationwide and that effective August 7, both consumers and businesses with certain packages would have 5G access “at no additional cost” which included customers with AT&T Unlimited Starter, Extra, Elite, AT&T Business Unlimited Web-Only and Starter wireless plans. … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Videogaming Business Becoming More and More Attractive

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Image Shown: The video game industry has been placing a much greater emphasis on growing their mobile gaming operations in recent years. Part of that strategy has involved leveraging existing IP and well-known gaming titles to appeal to a wide range of users. Image Source: Electronic Arts Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation Executive Summary: Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, and Take-Two Interactive Software have pristine balance sheets, stellar cash flow profiles, and their business models are supported by secular growth tailwinds such as the rise of the global middle class (and more broadly, additional households in emerging economies gaining access to the internet), a growing casual and dedicated video game user base across the globe, and … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more