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COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies

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Image Source: CDC. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).  Our dearest members: — The world is being challenged today by what some including Bill Gates believe might be a “once-in-a-century pathogen.” We do not know the eventual outcome, whether the impact of this illness ends up being as profound as the Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919 (which inflicted a death toll in the tens of millions), but we maintain our view the markets have yet to come to grips with the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity and potential ramifications on the global economy and the banking system.  — What is currently a “biological” crisis may turn into an all-out global financial crisis, one that could end up worse than the 2008/2009 mortgage meltdown. Instead … Read more

Has the Stock Market Crash Begun?

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Image: CDC. Transmission electron microscopic image of an isolate from the first U.S. case of COVID-19, formerly known as 2019-nCoV. The spherical viral particles, colorized blue, contain cross-section through the viral genome, seen as black dots. Dear members: This article is our fourth update on COVID-19. The previous three installments can be found here (Feb 22), here (Feb 7) and here (Jan 31). We trust you and yours are well during this global crisis. It’s hard to turn on the television these days without hearing about COVID-19, a novel coronavirus and respiratory illness that continues to spread from person to person around the world. COVID-19 is deadly, and particularly deadly among those 60 years of age and older and those … Read more

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 29

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 29. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Becton, Dickinson (BDX): now $0.79 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.77. Deswell Industries (DSWL): now $0.08 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.07. Dynacor Gold Mines (DNGDF): now CAD 0.015 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.01. Exchange Bank (EXSR): now $1.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.10. Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.68. Golub Capital BDC (GBDC): now $0.33 … Read more

Investors Are Paying a Hefty Premium for NextEra Energy’s Great Dividend Growth Story

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Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan NextEra Energy (NEE) is one of the largest electric utility companies in North America. Management’s long-term strategy involves building out renewable energy power generation facilities all across America and Canada, namely wind farms and solar plants, while also making the necessarily investments in baseload generating facilities like nuclear power plants, natural gas-fired power plants and gas pipeline networks. Battery storage is increasingly becoming a key focus as well, as that’s what should enable renewable energy facilities to shift from intermittent to baseload power generators over time. We like NextEra’s strong growth trajectory and commitment to dividend growth, but like all utilities, a key part of its business model relies … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 23

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Becton, Dickinson (BDX): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.75. CB Financial Services (CBFV): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): now $0.144509 per share monthly dividend, was $0.124040. Deswell Industries (DSWL): now $0.06 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.04. Exchange Bank (EXSR): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.95. Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach (FMBL): … Read more