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Realty Income’s AFFO Covers Dividends Paid in Third Quarter

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Image: Realty Income’s shares have seen better days. By Brian Nelson, CFA Realty Income (O) reported mixed third quarter results November 4 with revenue exceeding the consensus forecast but funds from operations coming up short. Revenue advanced 28.1% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, with same store rental revenue up modestly (0.2%). However, net income per share and FFO per share fell to $0.30 and $0.98, respectively, from $0.33 and $1.04 in the same period a year ago. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) came in at $1.05 per share in the period, up from $1.02 in last year’s quarter, and comfortably higher than dividends paid per share of $0.789 over the same time. Management had the following to say … Read more

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted

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As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Note: There is often great confusion with respect to published measures of financial leverage, and … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration

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Image: Energy Transfer, Philip Morris, and Altria have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF (SDY) since the beginning of 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market remains laser-focused on inflation readings and employment trends – two of the main dynamics that influence policy at the Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of 2024, the market has ratcheted down expectations of rate cuts from as many as 5 or 6 to just 1 or 2 in 2024. With yields on risk-free instruments poised to go lower soon, a focus on high yielding equities may be appropriate for the income investor. Here are three high dividend yielders that we like for consideration. Energy Transfer (ET) Midstream pipeline operator Energy Transfer has come … Read more

High Yield Dividend Income Investing Is Not as Easy as Chasing the Highest Yield

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Dear members: — The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (1) and Dividend Growth … Read more

You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends

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“Business owners across the world know that their business is not more or less valuable because they paid themselves a higher distribution this quarter.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Image Source: Images Money Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not a driver behind it. where A (t) is an Enterprise Free Cash Flow (1) at year t,                 B (0) is a Total Debt at time 0,                 … Read more

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?

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Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key … Read more

Tanger’s External Growth Activity Looks Encouraging

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Image Source: Tanger Inc. By Brian Nelson, CFA Tanger Inc. (SKT) is an owner and operator of outlet and open-air retail shopping destinations, and the REIT has done a great job of late, with shares advancing more than 50% during the past year. While traditional real estate equities have languished, Tanger has managed to keep moving in the right direction. The REIT reported better than expected fourth-quarter results February 15, and its ~3.6% dividend yield isn’t too shabby. For investors looking to take a leap into retail REITs, Tanger may be among the top considerations. Tanger’s net income came in at $0.22 per share in the fourth quarter, up from $0.17 per share in the same period a year ago, … Read more

3 Substantial Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing

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Dear members: There are three primary benefits of a well-executed dividend growth strategy, one that is carried out with prudence and care and one that pays careful attention to the intrinsic value of the stock and its critical cash-based components. Albert Einstein is reported to have called compound interest the “eighth wonder of the world,” but dividend growth investing has the potential to offer long-term investors so much more! Let’s explain. 1) Reinvested Dividends Compound Over Time Over the past decade, I have grown to appreciate the compounding dynamics of reinvested dividends on appreciating stocks even more than historical studies have revealed. The strategy of dividend growth investing not only benefits from the reinvestment of dividends into the purchase of … Read more

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024

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By Brian Nelson, CFA 1. The Fed has signaled that rate cuts could start with inflation at a 2 handle (2 point something) and not at exactly 2.0%. That means that the Fed may become anticipatory to prevent overshooting to the downside with inflation. We see this as positive for long-duration equities, particularly those whose free cash flow generation is robust in the out-years, inclusive of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. 2. Unemployment is at structural lows of 3.7%. Employers are working hard to keep talent on board, and with each paycheck, employees are pumping more and more money into the stock market via retirement accounts. This tailwind remains a stiff one and will … Read more