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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Stocks in the News: Kinder Morgan, Union Pacific, Colgate-Palmolive

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Let’s cover the quarterly reports from a few industry bellwethers. By Brian Nelson, CFA Kinder Morgan (KMI) Plans for Dividend Hikes Kinder Morgan appears to be back on track, something that it set the stage for in early 2016 when Barron’s wrote about Valuentum’s take, “Is Kinder Morgan on the Road to Recovery (January 2016).” The pipeline operator continues to trade near our fair value estimate of $20, so it’s hard to make the case that there is a tremendous valuation opportunity in shares, though its prospects for a return to dividend growth have improved. On July 19, Kinder Morgan announced that it expects to raise its dividend by 60% in 2018 and advance the payout at a 25% yearly … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Calendar Fourth Quarter Earnings Roundup: IBM, GE, PG, UNP

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Image Source: texasfeel Let’s get our thoughts on calendar fourth-quarter performance from a few giants in their respective industries. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA International Business Machines IBM’s (IBM) stock is now back above the $170 per-share mark after falling below $120 per share just a little over a year ago. Five-year performance of the equity, however, still remains terrible, with shares of IBM languishing around the price they were changing hands at the beginning of 2012. Warren Buffett’s association with the stock has a lot of investors excited, but we think the Oracle of Omaha may be a bit too optimistic on this one. Year-over-year revenue at IBM has been under considerable pressure for some time, and … Read more

Tough Times for Rails

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Key Takeaways: The North American railroad industry is oligopolistic in nature, and we love the barriers to entry and pricing strength that come with it. North American railroad operators have been hit by volume declines across a wide range of end markets. Currency movements and global economic concerns aren’t helping matters. Union Pacific remains our choice for exposure to the space. Though others present interesting opportunities as well, we think the firm’s operating ratio has the most upside from current levels in addition to it having some attractive market positioning. “…we’re not thrilled by the performance of Union Pacific since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but the railroad industry offers such a strong fundamental backdrop that … Read more

Railroad Merger Talks

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Canadian Pacific (CP) is back on the hunt for consolidation. After regulators shot down a proposed deal for CSX (CSX) last year, the firm is reportedly in preliminary talks with Norfolk Southern (NSC) concerning a merger that could be worth more than $24 billion. The fact that there are so few railroad operators in the US suggests that a deal will be very difficult to get past regulators, and if a deal does in fact get done, it will likely be the last of its size in the industry. The two companies have complimentary cargo markets and little geographical overlap, in our birds’ eye view of their respective route networks. Norfolk Southern generates 22% of its revenue in intermodal shipments, … Read more

Bellwether Snapshot: Walmart, Boeing, CSX

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Alcoa (AA) kicked off third-quarter earnings season with a wimper, which had been preceded by Yum! Brands’ (YUM) doozy of a showing. Incremental news impacting the expected performance of Walmart (WMT), Boeing (BA), and CSX (CSX) hasn’t been great either. Investors continue to write off weakness as “normal,” even “macroeconomic” as if it doesn’t matter, pointing to the transient nature of a struggling global economy suffering from a slowdown in the pace of growth in China and weakness in export-dependent countries, not the least of which is Brazil, as somehow a “good thing,” but it may not matter. The trajectory of expectations of future free cash flow generation is being impacted, and so are fair value estimates as a result, … Read more

Video: Are Economic Moats Priced Into Stock Prices? — You Bet They Are

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President of Equity Research Brian Nelson debunks the myth that the economic moat is not included in stock prices. Length: ~8 minutes. Tickerized for firms in the Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT), as of October 14, 2015. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I wanted to talk about an important concept and answer an important question. Is Warren Buffet’s economic moat priced into stock prices? Before I answer that question, I think we need to define a couple things. Return on invested capital is a measure of a business’ performance. It’s calculated as earnings before interest divided by net new investment, which is a measure of return on new invested capital. So what is the return the … Read more

Railroads Reveal Economic Concerns in the US

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Valuentum wrote a comprehensive outlook on the coal industry and railroads in this July 2013 piece here, and to a very large degree, the piece couldn’t have told the future better. Not only did we warn against the most heavily-leveraged coal producers, including James River, Arch Coal (ACI) and Walter Energy, but we threw cold water on the entire coal industry altogether. James River and Walter Energy subsequently filed for bankruptcy. We pointed to economic and political pressures making coal a less viable utility option in the US, as we stated that heightened competition in the US export market would make met coal a less attractive proposition. Since the publishing of the piece, coal operators have suffered immensely. The Market … Read more