NS

An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted

by

As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Note: There is often great confusion with respect to published measures of financial leverage, and … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

by

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration

by

Image: Energy Transfer, Philip Morris, and Altria have outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF (SDY) since the beginning of 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market remains laser-focused on inflation readings and employment trends – two of the main dynamics that influence policy at the Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of 2024, the market has ratcheted down expectations of rate cuts from as many as 5 or 6 to just 1 or 2 in 2024. With yields on risk-free instruments poised to go lower soon, a focus on high yielding equities may be appropriate for the income investor. Here are three high dividend yielders that we like for consideration. Energy Transfer (ET) Midstream pipeline operator Energy Transfer has come … Read more

High Yield Dividend Income Investing Is Not as Easy as Chasing the Highest Yield

by

Dear members: — The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (1) and Dividend Growth … Read more

Kinder Morgan Now Covers Cash Dividends with Traditional Free Cash Flow

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 18, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported third-quarter results that came in lower than expectations, but we’ve taken note of the company’s improved free cash flow generation that now runs in excess of its cash dividends paid, a huge change from a decade ago, where capital spending and cash dividends paid far outweighed its operating cash flow capacity. The company’s dividend stands at $1.13 per share on an annualized basis, and Kinder Morgan now has a forward estimated dividend yield of ~6.7%, which is quite attractive. Shares are trading meaningfully below our estimate of their intrinsic value, too, and we’re warming up to the company’s financials. Its net debt position likely precludes it from being added … Read more

We Like NextEra Energy’s ESG Focus But Capital Market Conditions Now Showing Cracks

by

Image Source: NextEra Energy By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve written in the past about NextEra Energy (NEE), and our latest note can be found here. The company remains one of our favorite utilities, but mostly because of its renewables energy exposure as it relates to ESG considerations. When it comes to utilities, more generally, however, we tend to take a pass on almost all of them given the capital intensity involved in their operations and their interest-rate sensitivity, especially now in an environment where interest rates are returning to “normal” levels in the mid-single-digits. The forward estimated dividend yield on the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) stands at ~3.8% at the time of this writing, and if investors are … Read more

Magellan Midstream Soars on Takeout Deal

by

Image: Magellan Midstream Partners soars on a takeout offer from ONEOK, Inc. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re as happy as we can be to see a midstream energy master limited partnership (MLP) takeout. On Sunday, May 14, it was publicly announced that Magellan Midstream (MMP) would be bought by ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) in a cash and stock deal worth ~$18.8 billion including assumed debt. According to the deal terms, the transaction would give $25 per share in cash and 0.667 common share of ONEOK for each MMP common unit. Though many are questioning the rationale behind the deal, energy infrastructure rollups continue to reduce the number of energy MLPs trading on public markets, as we predicted years ago. Units of … Read more

There Are No Free ‘Income’ Lunches

by

Image Source: Jeffrey Beall By Brian Nelson, CFA We often talk about certain areas of the market such as large cap growth and small cap value. One of the big takeaways of the book Value Trap is that it explains that there are not really growth or value stocks, but rather there are only undervalued, fairly valued, and overvalued stocks determined on the basis of a price-versus-fair value consideration. This will always be true. Each company is different, and no company can be distilled into a simple price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-book (P/B) metric to determine the attractiveness of its valuation. For example, a company with a low P/E can be overvalued because the market is missing its huge net debt … Read more

Dividends, Dividends, Dividends

by

Valuentum’s President of Equity Research Brian Nelson shares three unique insights on dividends not commonly discussed among investors. The transcript of the video can be found in this article. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I wanted to share with you three insights on dividends that I don’t think are talked about enough in today’s dividend growth investing handbook. The first is the idea that the dividend is a symptom of a company’s strength so the key driver behind a firm’s valuation is its free cash flows, and the dividend is a symptom of the company being able to continue to generate those free cash flows and to pay a portion of those cash flows to … Read more

Energy Pipelines: What a Difference A Few Years Have Made!

by

Image: Midstream energy companies have significantly improved their free cash coverage of their payouts in recent years. We’ve taken note. Source: Relevant 10-Q filings. By Brian Nelson, CFA As of our last check, no longer are the vast majority of energy pipeline players not covering their dividends/distributions with traditional free cash flow, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending. Said another way, free cash flow after dividends, distributions is positive for a great many energy pipeline players these days. We’re pleased by the developments across midstream, and we expect to make some moves in the simulated newsletter portfolios to potentially add the Alerian MLP (AMLP) ETF to the simulated newsletter portfolios as a result. This is … Read more