Valuentum’s Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
Let’s take a deep dive into the energy sector. The best dividend growth ideas, the most likely takeout candidates and more…
NOV
Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades. Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more
Which Sectors Are Leading the Market Higher? And Why Is This Important?
Missed the ’13 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market’? Click here. Demand academic evidence regarding the efficacy of the Valuentum process? Click here. Tobias J. Moskowitz and Mark Grinblatt documented the “strong and prevalent momentum effect in industry components of stock returns which accounts for much of the individual stock momentum anomaly” in their scholarly article published in the Journal of Finance, ‘Do Industries Explain Momentum’ (download here; stable link here; updated by Fraulo and Nguyen here). Moskowitz and Grinblatt also concluded that “industry momentum investment strategies, which buy stocks from past winning industries and sell stocks from past losing industries, appear highly profitable.” Such findings are consistent with the ‘Case for the Valuentum Style of Investing,’ and … Read more
Our Thoughts on Chevron Buying Noble Energy
Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy Inc that was announced in July 2020. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – July 2020 Noble Energy Acquisition Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 20, Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced it was acquiring Noble Energy Inc (NBL) through a $5.0 billion all-stock transaction, or $13.0 billion when factoring in net debt and the book value of non-controlling interests. Shareholders of Noble Energy will receive approximately 0.12 share of Chevron for each share of Noble Energy. At the time the deal was announced, shareholders of NBL were receiving a ~12% premium based on the ten-day average closing stock prices. Chevron intends to issue ~58 million shares to cover the deal, keeping … Read more
Seeking Balance: What’s Happening in the Crude Oil and Iron Ore Markets
Image Source: Sollven Melindo Commodity prices are notoriously volatile as the global markets often struggle to maintain a sustainable balance of supply-demand. Let’s take a look at some recent developments and coming events that are impacting the prices of crude oil and iron ore. By Kris Rosemann We’re not rushing to add any commodity-based exposure at the moment. We have some of course – but we’re not looking to add more to the newsletter portfolios. For starters, the iron ore pricing market appears to be setting itself up for another period of pain, and we’re preaching serious levels of caution for those considering the space as iron-ore prices have already begun to descend from the peak of the puzzling early-2017 … Read more
Historic Oil Deal Reached
Image Source: Chevron Corporation (CVX) – March 2020 Security Analyst Meeting Presentation By Callum Turcan Over the Easter holiday weekend, members from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’), non-OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ group (countries that in the recent past have joined forces with OPEC to curtail global oil supplies in a formal manner), and non-OPEC members outside of the OPEC+ group such as Brazil (EWZ), Canada (EWC), and the United States (SPY) came to an agreement to cut their collective oil output by north of 10 million barrels per day. Global oil and other raw energy resource prices (USO, BNO) have been simply demolished year-to-date due to a combination of demand destruction from the ongoing … Read more
The Real Reason Why Moats Matter
Image Source: Ray in Manila Valuentum: We’re here today with Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Nelson to talk about the concept of an economic moat. You think the concept of an economic moat is one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. Can you elaborate? Nelson: Sure, of course. An economic moat was first coined by the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, to describe significant and sustainable competitive advantages. Now, if you ask any business, they’re going to tell you that they have an economic moat of some sort, whether it’s some low-cost position or intangible asset or an impenetrable network effect. Investors today are at a disadvantage of misinformation given just how widespread the term moat or … Read more
ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?
President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 17
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week A2A S.p.A. (AEMMY): now $0.3362 per share annual dividend, was $0.3202. Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. AIXTRON SE (AIIXY): now $0.576 per share annual dividend, was $0.452. AMMO, Inc. 8.75% PFD SER A (POWWP): now $0.559 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.553. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.61 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Assicurazioni Generali … Read more
Valuentum Exclusive Yearly Round Up
Select the following link to access the Annual Exclusive Call. Select HERE to Access the Exclusive Call Recording ———- Transcript Provided Below. President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for your attendance. Today marks three years since we first launched the Exclusive publication. The Exclusive is our premiere offering for sophisticated investors and builds upon our successes of the past, not only in establishing one of the first methodologies that successfully blends enterprise valuation with behavioral valuation and technical and momentum indicators, but also in making such a process available to individuals, financial advisors and institutional investors in full transparency. The Exclusive publication is in many ways an extension of the strong performance of both the … Read more