NLY

Valuentum Members Are Reminded of the mREITs

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“I am the advisor you referenced in the July newsletter who sold AGNC. Your timely article made me re-look at all of the mReits we owned, and we sold off nearly all of them over the following month after your article. I just calculated where we sold (because of your article) compared to where the mReits are today. Your article, which influenced the selling saved our clients over $1.1 million in equity price drops. That translates into $11,000 per year of fee income to the firm. You can bet that we will be re-subscribing when the time comes. Thank you for your hard work, and bringing additional value that was not owed or expected.” — Tim A. (source: Valuentum testimonials), … Read more

American Capital Agency Disappoints Again; Armour Residential Follows

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We’re still getting praises from our call on the mREIT industry that shocked the investment world and literally put our research firm on the map (click here for that). We outlined how other research firms were so wrong in this piece (link), and interestingly, we’re adding BAML today to the list of investment shops that led their advisor communities astray. Frankly, we’re honored to serve you, and we’re proud to have delivered on the correct research perspective. We’re not here to point out the pitfalls of others, but by pointing out this well-documented example, our goal is to continue to build your trust in us as a firm. Let’s take a look at the ongoing troubles the mREIT industry continues … Read more

American Capital Agency Loses $2.37 Per Share in Second Quarter

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As we have encouraged readers since the peak in September 2012, the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has myriad risks, and the marketing pitches indicating that their principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a US government sponsored entity (GSE) should not make investors feel safe. This dynamic has little bearing on the underlying trajectory of fundamentals and a mortgage REIT’s book value, the key valuation driver and the major impetus behind share price movements in the space. During the second quarter (results released Monday), American Capital Agency (AGNC) failed at its principal objective to preserve net asset value, as book value plunged to $25.51 per share from $28.93 per share in the previous sequential quarter (a $3.42 move). … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Included Realty Income and US Bancorp; Dividend Cuts Included a Number of Mortgage REITs

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Below we provide a list of firms that increased or decreased their dividends for the week ending June 21. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here. Dividend Increases for the Week Ending June 21 CVB Financial (CVBF): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.085. Darden Restaurants (DRI): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. First Internet Bancorp (INBK): now $0.06 per share, was $0.04 (post-split). Host Hotels & Resorts (HST): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. John Wiley & Sons (JW.A): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Mortgage REITs Are Still Hurting

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With QE Infinity potentially ending in mid-2014 and American Capital Agency (AGNC) slashing its quarterly dividend today (now $1.05 per share, was $1.25), mortgage REITs are still hurting. Consistent with our thesis on the group, dividend payments at a variety of industry constituents are not sustainable. American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) also cut its dividend today, while Two Harbors (TWO) lowered its quarterly payout a couple weeks after our industry thesis hit the wires. Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency, Armour Residential (ARR) and Western Asset Management (WMC) were all down more than 2% today. With Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke announcing potential tapering in 2013 and a potential end to mortgage-backed security purchases in mid-2014, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved nearly … Read more

Mortgage REITs Feeling the Pain

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We published our extensive bear thesis on the mortgage REIT industry Monday–‘The Mortgage REIT Business Doesn’t Work…‘–, and when the markets opened for trading Tuesday, the entire mREIT group came under intense selling pressure, with American Capital Agency (AGNC) leading the charge lower. Key moves: American Capital Agency (-4.73%), Annaly (NLY -3.47%), Two Harbors (TWO -2.87%), Anworth (ANH -2.08%), Western Asset (WMC -3.75%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -5.43%), Invesco (IVR -4.22%), MFA Financial (MFA -2.2%). The 10-year Treasury added another 14 basis points today (2.15%), while the 30-year Treasury added 13 basis points (3.31%)–source. The primary driver behind our negative thesis on the mortgage REITs rests on the continuation of higher interest rates, and the eroding of the group’s net asset value via net unrealized losses (negative OCI) … Read more

The Mortgage REIT Business Doesn’t Work…

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Key Takeaways: ·         The good times are over for mortgage REITs. o       Mortgage market dynamics are inherently difficult to predict. o       A flatter yield curve has negatively impacted net interest rate spread income across the entire mortgage REIT universe. We’re already seeing deteriorating gross ROE’s from some of the largest industry constituents. o       The Fed has only caused a marginal tightening in mortgage spreads, and in our view, a marginal widening due to reduced Fed activity (if/when it happens) is perhaps the best-case scenario as it relates to spread income for the group. A continuation of spread tightening is likely the base-case scenario, which is negative for the group. o       Net interest rate spread income and gross ROE’s will only be materially enhanced … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more