MRK

An Overview on Valuing Junior Biotech Companies — Does Clovis Fit the Bill?

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The biotech industry remains one of the most fascinating yet perplexing industries for investors. Anecdotes of the entry-stage biotech with a home-run new therapy are often romanticized, but the reality is the vast majority of molecules fail in various stages of clinical testing.  Due to the boom-bust nature of the industry, many are wary of investing in the space, and traditional valuation metrics are not as useful due to a large number of such speculative entities being in the pre-revenue stage. With this in mind, let’s take a glimpse into our thought process when evaluating upstart biotech companies. By Alexander J. Poulos Before we dig in, we feel a word of caution is warranted. Entry-stage biotechs (IBB) inherently come with … Read more

The Legal Battle Between Regeneron and Amgen Heats Up

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Image Source: Regeneron The legal battle between two of the titans of the biotech world heated up further with a recent ruling overturning the injunction of a critical asset. We are updating our thesis in light of current events. By Alexander J. Poulos Legal Battle Amgen (AMGN) is locked in a protracted battle with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and its partner Sanofi (SNY) over a potential patent infringement. The asset in question is Praluent which belongs to the PCSK9 inhibitor, which is approved for the patient class afflicted with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia or clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which require additional lowering of LDL-C. The nexus of Amgen’s complaint is Praluent infringes on some of the intellectual property (IP) that backs its … Read more

Upadacitinib Posts Impressive Data for AbbVie

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Image Source: AbbVie In the pharmaceutical realm, the productivity of the clinical pipeline is essential to replace the loss of revenue due to an expiration of the patent life of a product. AbbVie is facing the monumental task of having to diversify away from the top-selling pharmaceutical product in the world with little in the way of assurances the transition will be a success. We are pleased with the recent data release on Upadacitinib as we view the molecule as AbbVie’s top R&D product. By Alexander J. Poulos Upadacitinib in Rheumatoid Arthritis AbbVie (ABBV) believes it can successfully transition its portfolio from top-selling product Humira over to its next-generation treatment. AbbVie’s Upadacitinib belongs to the novel class of JAK-1 inhibitors, … Read more

Post-Earnings Update: AbbVie

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Image Source: Global Panorama AbbVie’s top-line performance has been relatively strong (unlike its big pharma peers), translating into a generous dividend–further enhancing the appeal of the equity. But is the company’s attractive fundamentals about to change? Let’s take a look at AbbVie’s fundamentals following its second-quarter report, released July 28. By Alexander J. Poulos Overview One of the main appeals of big-pharma companies such as AbbVie (ABBV) and peers Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Pfizer (PFE) is their comparatively attractive dividend-yield potential as high margins generated from patent-protected compounds lead to internally generated cash flows above the funding needs of the business. As long as big pharma firms can continue to churn out a steady stream of new products … Read more

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva

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Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Generic Drug Deflation Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) maintains its position as one of the world’s largest manufacturer of generic medications, but the marketplace for a generic drug differs from the market dynamics of the branded space. We view … Read more

Video: Explaining the Valuentum Buying Index

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The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) stands on the shoulders of giants in finance in uncovering investment ideas.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I would like to talk about our Valuentum Buying Index, the stock selection methodology that we use and apply across our entire coverage universe. But before I get into some of the specifics, I’d like to provide more or less a summary. Essentially what the Valuentum Buying Index does is it highlights undervalued stocks that are going up in price. Undervalued stocks with good momentum…Value-ntum stocks. So, at the core, the Valuentum Buying Index tries to find stocks that we think have a very strong likelihood of equity price appreciation. It breaks … Read more

Amgen’s Pipeline Continues to Disappoint

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Image Source: Amgen The ability to generate commercially-viable products via the clinical pipeline is crucial to grow profits and offset revenue declines from the loss of patent protection. We remain unimpressed with the progress shown thus far by biotech stalwart Amgen. Let’s review the clinical pipeline along with a consideration of the recently-released earnings report. By Alexander J. Poulos Clinical Pipeline We believe the three most promising molecules in Amgen’s (AMGN) pipeline in order of importance are Repatha, Evenity, and Erenumab. Amgen’s ability to develop and market these products will go a long way to shore up the top-line revenue as older products begin to face biosimilar challenges that continue to sap revenue and profits. Let’s examine each in further … Read more

Bristol-Myers Squibb Disappoints

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Shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb have come under intense selling pressure off the heels of disappointing performance at ASCO. Let’s examine the situation. By Alexander J. Poulos What is ASCO? ASCO is an acronym for the American Society of Clinical Oncology, the premier organization for oncologists. ASCO typically holds its annual meeting in early June, which holds particular appeal for biotech (IBB) investors. Biotech outfits will often use the annual meeting for a full disclosure of study data, which can have an outsized impact on equity prices. The ASCO effect on Bristol-Myers Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) was the darling of the 2013 ASCO event, revealing stunning data for its flagship compound Opdivo. The equity took off leading into and well after the … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Three Notable Pending FDA Approvals

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Image Source: Brandon Giesbrecht The final step of the drug approval process is the filing of a new drug application (NDA), when the FDA assesses trial results before deciding if the treatment warrants marketing approval. A delay or rejection can have a meaningful impact on the equity price, so let’s dig into a few notable upcoming decisions. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Baricitinib Baricitinib is a Janus Kinase 1&2 inhibitor that is being studied for the treatment of a wide range of inflammatory diseases, and clinical trials for the indication of rheumatoid arthritis conclusively demonstrated superiority to placebo–and Humira. The superiority to Humira, in our view, is a key differentiator in the crowded inflammatory disease market, a direct result … Read more